Bookmakers across the UK are anticipating over £250m of bets being taken on the Grand National 2019 from millions of customers. Only a few of those placing bets will manage to back the winner on the day. Will you be one of them?
Some people will take a punt on a tip from a friend, others will pick a runner based on the colour of silks worn by the jockey, while more will lump on a horse for no other reason than they like the name of the horse. In fact when Rule The World won in 2016 a significant amount of people who had backed it did so because it was their favourite Take That song!
If you want to be more strategic about your choice of a horse then you can study the trends and statistics that have emerged over the last ten years and try to determine patterns that will help whittle down your selections.
Only three winners carried more than 11-00 and they were Many Clouds in 2015 (11-09), Neptune Colognes in 2012 (11-06) and Don’t Push It in 2010 (11-05).
Seven of the last ten winners were 9, 10 or 11 years old. Tiger Roll in 2018, One For Arthur in 2017 and Many Clouds in 2015 broke that trend as they were all eight years old.
Only two winners went off as the favourite and they were Don’t Push It in 2010 (10/1) and Comply Or Die in 2008 (7/1). Mon Mome won on 100/1 but he was first since 1967 to do that. In fact the average odds of a winning Grand National horse are around 20/1.
Nine winners had at least four seasonal runs before going on to win the Grand National. The only two who had less were Ballabriggs in 2011 and One For Arthur in 2017 and they both had run three times.
Nine winners had either won or placed in a race longer than 3m in the season they won the Grand National. Only one, Auroras Encore had not won or placed on the run-up to the 2013 National.
None of the last 10 winners unseated their jockey in the season they won the Grand National.
Eight of the last ten winners had not fallen in the season they won the Grand National.
Ideally what you’re looking for is a Grand National 2019 Runner that is carrying 11-00 or less, who is 9, 10 or 11 years old. Avoid the favourites and look for those who are priced between 14/1 and 40/1 and who have at least three seasonal runs, with extra consideration for those who have won or placed at 3 miles or more.
Or simply tear up the stats and pick a runner because you like its name!