The Betfred 2000 Guineas has a great history of rewarding those who look beyond the market leaders.
While Bow Echo, Distant Storm, and Gstaad dominate the betting at the head of the market, history suggests punters should cast their nets wider.
Rockavon remains the longest-priced winner at 66/1 in 1961, while more recently Night of Thunder landed the spoils at 40/1 in 2014.
Makfi’s 33/1 victory in 2010 proved that the Newmarket Classic regularly produces surprises, and only 40% of 2000 Guineas winners have been favourites, meaning six out of every ten runnings see the market leader beaten.
Saturday’s renewal at Newmarket presents an open contest, with several horses carrying form that suggests they can outperform their odds.
The absence of an overwhelmingly dominant runner and mixed performances on reappearance create opportunities for shrewd bettors willing to look beyond the obvious choices.
Alparslan: Burke’s Progressive Colt
Karl Burke’s Alparslan offers excellent value at 25/1, having won the Group 3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury in April.
His record of three wins from four starts is impressive, but the notable concern is that Alparslan didn’t like the undulations of the Rowley Mile when finishing sixth of nine behind Gewan in the Dewhurst last October.
Burke acknowledged this question mark, suggesting the track could have been an issue, though he also noted that two-year-old immaturity may have played a part.
The trainer’s comments after the Newbury win were telling, describing his charge as a high-class horse who would definitely improve fitness-wise.
Burke noted that in the final 50 yards at Newbury, Alparslan was going away rather than stopping, suggesting the mile trip should be within his compass.
Thesecretadversary: Irish Raider with Scope
Fozzy Stack’s Thesecretadversary represents serious each-way value at 20/1 following his impressive reappearance victory in the Leopardstown trial.
The St Mark’s Basilica colt won going away that day, suggesting he has trained on strongly from his juvenile campaign. That performance came after he had finished fifth in a Grade 1 at Woodbine in September and second in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot.
What makes Thesecretadversary particularly appealing is his profile as a progressive type who was unlucky at Ayr last season when beaten as a 2/13 shot.
The form of his Leopardstown win stacks up well, with the runner-up Power Blue having previously finished runner-up in a Group 1 Phoenix Stakes.
Oxagon: Gosden’s Craven Winner
John and Thady Gosden’s Oxagon appears on the money at 11/1, having posted the best reappearance performance when winning the Craven Stakes comfortably.
The Frankel colt sporting first-time cheekpieces turned in a professional display to score, with trainer John Gosden admitting to stupidly running him on heavy ground at Doncaster in the Futurity, where he finished in last place.
The Craven may have lacked depth following late withdrawals, but Oxagon ran exactly as hoped, and connections believe he deserves to take his chance in what Gosden described as an open Guineas.
The notable concern is his Dewhurst defeat, where he was one of the last off the bridle and didn’t finish off up the hill.
However, that came after being put in his place by the ill-fated Gewan, who was an exceptional juvenile before his tragic death.
Oxagon’s profile as a Craven winner makes 11/1 look generous.
2000 Guineas 2026 Odds
*Odds from Betfred correct at time of publishing
| No. | Horse | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Gstaad | A P O’Brien | 9/4 |
| 4 | Bow Echo | G Boughey | 10/3 |
| 5 | Distant Storm | C Appleby | 9/2 |
| 11 | Oxagon | J & T Gosden | 11/1 |
| 8 | King’s Trail | C Appleby | 11/1 |
| 2 | Avicenna | R Varian | 16/1 |
| 10 | Needle Match | W J Haggas | 16/1 |
| 14 | Thesecretadversary | J A Stack | 20/1 |
| 1 | Alparslan | K R Burke | 25/1 |
| 7 | Into The Sky | J R Boyle | 25/1 |
| 13 | Power Blue | Robson Aguiar | 33/1 |
| 12 | Padraig Dawn | Charlie Pike | 40/1 |
| 15 | Venetian Prince | A M Balding | 80/1 |
| 3 | Billecart | K R Burke | 125/1 |
| 9 | Lord Britain | I Mohammed | 200/1 |
The Value Verdict
For each-way punters seeking the best value, Thesecretadversary at around 20/1 offers the optimal combination of price and ability.
His official rating of 109 matches the highest figure achieved by any of the outsiders, while his reappearance performance at Leopardstown demonstrated he has trained on from his juvenile campaign.
The St Mark’s Basilica colt has the pedigree to get the trip, the class to compete at this level, and crucially, the progressive profile that suggests his best is still ahead of him.
Stack’s confident entry in multiple Guineas races indicates the stable holds him in high regard, while his finishing effort at Leopardstown showed he possesses the goods at this level.
The each-way terms offer insurance should he hit the frame, while his odds provide sufficient value to warrant a speculative investment.
In a Guineas where the market leaders have questions to answer about either their form credentials or their ability to handle the Rowley Mile, Thesecretadversary represents the type of unexposed improver who can emerge from the pack to claim a place at minimum.
BETFRED
