The first Saturday in May is nearly here, and you know what that means: Churchill Downs is about to burst into a riot of colour, hats, and hopefuls.
The 151st Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, May 3rd, 2025, and if you’re looking for the lowdown on who’s running, who’s hot, and who might just surprise us all, you’re in the right place.
So grab your mint julep, settle in, and let’s talk Derby.
2025 Kentucky Derby Field: Runners, Post Positions, and Odds
Here’s the official lineup – 20 horses, each with a shot at immortality (and a blanket of roses).
The post position draw is always a big deal, and this year’s field is as intriguing as ever.
Below, you’ll find the runners, their draw numbers, trainers, jockeys, and the all-important betting odds:
| Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 16/1 |
| 2 | Neoequos | Saffie Joseph Jr | Flavien Prat | 50/1 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | Brad H. Cox | Luan Machado | 20/1 |
| 4 | Rodriguez | Bob Baffert | Mike E. Smith | 14/1 |
| 5 | American Promise | D. Wayne Lukas | Nik Juarez | 33/1 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | Yukihiro Kato | Christophe Lemaire | 33/1 |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | Noriyuki Hori | Joao Moreira | 8/1 |
| 8 | Journalism | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli | 5/2 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | Ian R. Wilkes | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 12/1 |
| 10 | Grande | Todd Pletcher | John R. Velazquez | 20/1 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | D. Whitworth Beckman | Joseph D. Ramos | 50/1 |
| 12 | East Avenue | Brendan P. Walsh | Manuel Franco | 16/1 |
| 13 | Publisher | Steven Asmussen | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 25/1 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | Steven Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 20/1 |
| 15 | Render Judgment | Kenneth McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 66/1 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | Lonnie Briley | Juan P. Vargas | 25/1 |
| 17 | Sandman | Mark Casse | Jose L. Ortiz | 8/1 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | William Mott | Junior Alvarado | 6/1 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | Ethan West | Jareth Loveberry | 33/1 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | Brian A. Lynch | Javier Castellano | 66/1 |
As the field only allows a maximum of 20 runners, the reserve for 2025 is Baeza from John Shirreffs. If he runs, jockey Flavien Prat will be on board.
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Who’s the Horse to Beat?
Journalism (Post 8)
The buzz around Churchill Downs is all about Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli.
He’s on a four-race win streak, including three graded stakes and a decisive victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.
He’s fast, tactical, and has the kind of running style that suits the Derby’s sometimes-chaotic early pace.
The only knock? His trainer and jockey aren’t Derby veterans. McCarthy’s only other Derby starter finished ninth last year, and Rispoli has yet to crack the top eight.
Still, the numbers say he’s the one to beat, and his California form fits a trend that’s produced several recent winners.
Sovereignty (Post 18)
Sovereignty is the second choice on the board, trained by Bill Mott and piloted by Junior Alvarado.
He’s been consistent all season and comes in off a strong prep campaign.
He’s drawn wide, but that hasn’t been the kiss of death in recent Derbies – Rich Strike won from post 20 in 2022, after all.
Sovereignty’s tactical speed and late kick make him a real threat if he gets a clean trip.
Sandman (Post 17)
Sandman, trained by Mark Casse, is a classic “closer” – he likes to come from behind and mow them down late.
He won the Arkansas Derby with a powerful stretch run, and while deep closers don’t always get the best of it in the Derby, if the early pace is hot (and it looks like it might be), Sandman could be flying late.
Contenders, Dark Horses, and Outsiders
Rodriguez (Post 4)
Bob Baffert’s back after a three-year ban, and Rodriguez is his best shot for a record-tying seventh Derby win.
Rodriguez qualified by winning the Wood Memorial, but his form is a bit spotty. He’s only beaten one other Derby runner in his career, and he’s tended to fade against tougher company.
Some experts are advising caution here, despite the Baffert factor.
Burnham Square (Post 9)
Burnham Square is a closer with a nose for drama-he won the Blue Grass Stakes from last place, and his jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. won last year’s Derby with Mystik Dan.
He’s a grinder who always seems to be in the mix late, and if things get wild up front, he could pick up the pieces.
Luxor Cafe (Post 7)
Here’s a fun one: Luxor Cafe is a son of American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown winner, and he’s been tearing it up in Japan.
He’s won four straight, including three stakes, and his jockey, Joao Moreira, is making his Derby debut.
Japanese horses have been knocking on the Derby door lately, and Luxor Cafe could be the one to finally kick it down.
Grande (Post 10)
Grande might be flying under the radar, but don’t sleep on him.
He’s trained by Todd Pletcher (two-time Derby winner) and ridden by John Velazquez (three-time Derby winner).
He was second in the Wood Memorial after a wide trip and should relish the Derby distance.
Citizen Bull (Post 1)
Another Baffert runner, Citizen Bull, has a solid record and the pedigree to go the distance.
The big question is the rail draw-post 1 is notoriously tough, but if anyone can work out a trip, it’s Baffert and Martin Garcia.
American Promise (Post 5)
If you like a story, American Promise is your horse. He’s trained by the legendary D. Wayne Lukas, who’s won this race four times.
American Promise has the most starts in the field, a good pedigree, and comes off a big win in the Virginia Derby.
He’s a longshot, but Lukas knows how to get one ready for the big day.
Horses to Swerve? Potential Pitfalls
Final Gambit (Post 3)
Final Gambit is a synthetic specialist with no dirt experience. He won the Jeff Ruby Steaks, but the Derby is a different beast, and the lack of dirt form is a big red flag.
Neoequos, Flying Mohawk, Render Judgment, and Owen Almighty
These are the real outsiders, all at 50/1 or more. In a race as unpredictable as the Derby, you never say never, but you might want to save your money for the mint juleps here.
Key Trends and What They Mean for 2025
Early Speed and Tactical Position
History favours horses who can stay in the front half of the field after the first half-mile.
Seven of the last 15 winners were in the top three at that point. Journalism fits this profile perfectly, he’s tactical, not a pure speed horse, but always within striking distance.
Strong Final Prep
Most recent Derby winners ran the last three furlongs of their final prep in under 38 seconds.
Journalism, Sandman, and Sovereignty all meet this criterion.
California and Florida Form
Horses who prepped in California or ran in the Florida Derby have been especially successful in recent years.
Journalism is the standout California shipper this year, and that’s a big plus.
Graded Stakes Success
Graded stakes winners tend to perform best. Journalism, Sandman, Burnham Square, Rodriguez, and Luxor Cafe all have graded stakes wins on their resumes.
Post Position Trends
While the rail (post 1) is tough, recent winners have come from all over the gate, including posts 3, 8, and even 20.
Don’t get too hung up on the draw because it’s more about a clean trip, which is always key.
Fun Facts and Quirky Angles
Trainer Power: Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas are both back, and between them, they’ve won the Derby ten times.
If you believe in experience, you could do worse than siding with their runners.
International Flavor: Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona are flying the flag for Japan, and international horses are getting closer every year.
Luxor Cafe, in particular, is getting a lot of “wise guy” attention.
Jockey Legends: John Velazquez (Grande) and Mike Smith (Rodriguez) are both chasing history.
Smith, at 59, would become the oldest jockey to win the Derby if he pulls it off.
Betting Strategy: How to Play the 2025 Derby
Journalism is the logical pick-he ticks every box, has the speed, the form, and the right running style.
Sandman and Sovereignty are both solid alternatives if you want a bit more bang for your buck.
Burnham Square, Luxor Cafe, and Grande are all worth a look if you fancy a flutter on a price.
Rodriguez is attracting attention thanks to Baffert and his Wood Memorial win, but his form is patchy and experts are skeptical.
The Bottom Line
The Kentucky Derby is always a puzzle, and that’s what makes it so much fun.
This year’s field is deep, competitive, and full of stories. Whether you’re backing the favourite, taking a swing on a longshot, or just watching for the spectacle, you’re in for a treat.
So, who’s going to wear the roses?
The smart money is on Journalism, but as we’ve learned year after year, anything can happen when the gates spring open at Churchill Downs.
May your bets be lucky, your hat be fabulous, and your Derby Day unforgettable.
See you at the races!
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