The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is rarely a race in which fans need much help finding the favourites.
Daryz heads back to Longchamp attempting to defend his crown, while Maltese Cross, Kalpana and several high-class three-year-olds have attracted plenty of support ahead of Sunday’s race.
But the Arc has a field of 16, and concentrating only on the first few horses in the betting can mean overlooking some interesting runners at much bigger prices.
Two Arc outsiders in particular stand out.
Friendly Soul, available at around 20/1, arrives having actually won one of the major Arc trials over the same course and distance.
Then there is Japan’s Meisho Tabaru, around 33/1, a Grade 1 winner who beat Croix Du Nord earlier in the season and will have legendary jockey Yutaka Take in the saddle.
Neither would be the obvious selection to win the Arc. But, at their current odds, both have reasons to believe they could finish much closer than the market expects.
Friendly Soul
Perhaps the strangest thing about Friendly Soul’s price is that she has already done something several shorter-priced Arc contenders still need to prove. She has won a Group 1 over 1m4f at Longchamp.
Friendly Soul earned her place in Sunday’s race by winning the Prix Vermeille in September, defeating Pink Panthera and Sunly over the Arc course and distance.
That was not a minor trial, either. The Vermeille is one of the main races used by fillies and mares heading towards the Arc, and Friendly Soul produced a strong front-running performance under James Doyle. France Galop reported that she also broke the race record.
It was her second Group 1 victory, having previously won the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp in 2024.
Her record in France is particularly interesting. She has raced three times in the country and won all three, giving her a 100% French record going into the biggest race of her career.
Earlier this summer she finished second to Diamond Necklace in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood, while she was also third in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot.
The biggest question before the Vermeille concerned the distance, as she had done most of her best work at shorter trips, but she answered the stamina question emphatically at Longchamp.
Now she has another important factor on her side: stall 7. In a race where several interesting outsiders have been placed much wider, James Doyle should at least have options from that starting position.
The concern is obvious. An Arc containing Daryz, Kalpana, Maltese Cross and several top three-year-olds is considerably tougher than the Vermeille.
But 20/1 or bigger looks large for a horse who arrives as a recent Group 1 winner over exactly the same track and trip.
If she repeats her Vermeille performance, she could easily make those odds look generous.
Meisho Tabaru
Japan’s long wait for an Arc winner continues, and it is easy to understand why punters have become cautious about Japanese challengers.
Many outstanding Japanese horses have travelled to France over the years without managing to win the race. Meisho Tabaru, however, is not simply here to make up the numbers.
The five-year-old produced one of the best performances of his career when winning the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin in June, defeating Croix Du Nord by a neck.
He also brings potentially useful tactical speed to the Arc, is comfortable racing prominently, and has the ability to put pressure on rivals from some way out.
There is also Yutaka Take. Few jockeys anywhere in the world have a CV comparable to Take’s, yet the Arc remains one of the great prizes missing from it.
At the age of 57, he gets another opportunity aboard a horse good enough to have won one of Japan’s major Grade 1 races.
The obvious problem is stall 13, one of the wider positions, while Daryz, Kalpana, Thundering On and Varandir are among the leading contenders drawn much closer to the inside.
That draw is probably part of the reason why Meisho Tabaru remains around 33/1. Even so, his price seems to make very little allowance for just how good his best form is.
Two Arc Outsiders Worth Watching
Backing Arc outsiders is never simply about finding the horse with the biggest odds. There needs to be a reason why the market might be underestimating them.
Friendly Soul has perhaps the clearest argument. She has recently won a Group 1 Arc trial over the course and distance, is unbeaten in France and has a good stall in seven.
Meisho Tabaru has a much tougher draw, but he is already a Grade 1 winner this season and has beaten a high-class rival in Croix Du Nord.
Daryz and the other favourites deserve their position at the top of the market. But if you are searching further down the Arc betting for two horses capable of getting involved at bigger odds, Friendly Soul and Meisho Tabaru are difficult to ignore.
They might not win, but at 20/1 and 33/1, they do not necessarily have to in order to prove the market wrong, and more importantly, make an each-way bet worthwhile!
BETFRED
