The stall draw for the 2026 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe has added another major piece to the puzzle ahead of Sunday’s €5 million race at ParisLongchamp.
With 16 horses going to post and good ground expected, starting position could matter more than usual. The general rule in the Arc is fairly simple: being drawn low is usually helpful, while being caught wide can leave a jockey with some difficult early decisions.
That does not mean an outside stall makes victory impossible, but history suggests several leading contenders have gained a real advantage from Thursday’s draw, while others now face a much harder task.
Is The Arc Stall Draw Really That Important?
Looking at the 29 Arcs staged at Longchamp between 1995 and 2025, excluding the two Chantilly renewals, 24 of the 29 winners came from stalls 1 to 8.
Stalls 1 to 4 supplied 11 winners, while stalls 5 to 8 produced another 13. By comparison, just five winners came from stall nine or higher.
Stall 6 has a particularly strong record. Enable won from there in 2018, while Sea The Stars, Dylan Thomas, Hurricane Run, Solemia and Alpinista have also won an Arc from six.
That immediately makes Kalpana one of the biggest winners from this year’s draw.
There is a warning about going too low, though. Stall 1 has produced plenty of placed horses but only one winner during that 1995 to 2025 Longchamp sample, the brilliant Zarkava in 2008.
So how has the draw affected each of the 16 runners?
Stall 1: Benvenuto Cellini
This is probably a positive, but it comes with a catch.
Benvenuto Cellini can save ground, and Ryan Moore should have plenty of options if he breaks well. However, the danger is becoming boxed in against the rail as the field begins to bunch.
Stall 1 has produced 11 top-three finishes from 29 runners since 1995, but just one victory. It is better viewed as an excellent position for getting involved rather than a guaranteed winning draw.
Moore choosing Benvenuto Cellini after the draw is certainly interesting.
Stall 2: Chestnut Rocket
An excellent draw for a horse who needed something to fall his way.
Chestnut Rocket is not just one of the outsiders but looks set to go off on odds of around 100/1, so stall two does not suddenly make him an obvious contender.
It does, however, give Marvin Grandin the chance to save every inch of ground and hope stronger horses around him pull him into the race. Definite positive.
Stall 3: Thundering On
One of the major draw winners. Joseph O’Brien’s Thundering On already had an interesting profile as an improving three-year-old filly, and stall three makes her even more attractive.
Four winners have emerged from stall three in the 29-race sample, and Pierre-Charles Boudot should be able to settle her close enough without wasting ground. Big positive.
Stall 4: Varandir
Another horse who could hardly have asked for much better. Varandir won the Prix Niel at Longchamp and now gets an inside draw which should help him conserve energy.
He may need to improve again to trouble stablemate Daryz, but the draw has removed one potential problem. Positive.
Stall 5: Daryz
The defending champion and favourite has been handed an almost perfect position.
Stall five gives Mickael Barzalona the choice to hold a handy position without being pinned directly against the rail. Daryz won from stall two last year, so we already know he is comfortable running on the inside.
Only two Arc winners since 1988 have started from five, but the wider pattern strongly favours the inside eight. For a horse already at the head of the market, this is another box ticked.
Stall 6: Kalpana
Perhaps the biggest winner of all! Kalpana started from a much wider position when seventh in last year’s Arc. Twelve months later she has landed the most successful individual Arc stall of the modern period.
Six Arc winners since 1988 have come from stall six. It should allow Colin Keane to put her wherever he wants, save ground around the bends and move out when the race begins to develop.
Her draw alone does not make Kalpana the horse to beat, but her chance has certainly improved. Huge positive.
Stall 7: Friendly Soul
Friendly Soul likes to race prominently, and stall seven should allow James Doyle to find a forward position without having to force matters.
The Prix Vermeille winner has stamina to prove at this level, but the draw gives her every chance of getting the right trip.
Stall 8: Bright Light
Right on the edge of what history suggests is the preferred section.
Bright Light probably needs a career-best performance anyway, but stall eight should cause few complaints.
Slightly positive but probably not enough to overcome the threat from such a strong field of Arc runners.
Stall 9: Saddadd
This is where things start becoming more difficult. Only one winner in the 29 Longchamp Arcs examined came from stalls nine to 12.
Saddadd is not drawn disastrously wide, but jockey Ray Dawson may have to decide whether to move forward early or accept a position farther back than ideal.
Stall 10: Minnie Hauk
Last year Minnie Hauk finished second from stall one, beaten only a head by Daryz.
This time she starts from ten. It is not impossible, but William Buick may have to work harder to secure the economical trip she enjoyed 12 months ago.
For a horse trying to reverse last year’s result, the draw has made the job harder.
Stall 11: Maltese Cross
This is perhaps the most frustrating draw among the leading contenders.
Maltese Cross has the form to be a major player after winning the Grand Prix de Paris and Great Voltigeur, but stall 11 creates another problem for Tom Marquand to solve.
The good news is that he has shown a sharp turn of foot, so being ridden patiently may suit him. Still, his chance would surely look stronger from four, five or six.
Stall 12: Admire Terra
Japan’s first representative has been handed an awkward position. He already faces the challenge of adapting to European racing and now Cristian Demuro must find a way of avoiding covering too much extra ground.
For a horse who may find the Arc happening faster than the longer Japanese races he has contested, stall 12 is another concern.
Stall 13: Meisho Tabaru
Possibly the biggest disappointment of the draw from a Japanese point of view.
Meisho Tabaru is the stronger of Japan’s two challengers in the betting, and his prominent style could create problems from 13.
Yutaka Take may have to use some energy early to get across, particularly if he wants to avoid being caught three or four horses wide.
Japan has spent decades trying to win the Arc, and its leading 2026 hope has certainly not been helped by the draw.
Stall 14: Arrow Eagle
Another poor position. Arrow Eagle may have the stamina to keep going when others weaken, but being drawn 14 could force him to cover additional ground.
With quicker conditions also possibly working against him, he needed the draw to offer some assistance. It hasn’t.
Stall 15: Bay City Roller
Bay City Roller likes to race prominently, which makes stall 15 especially awkward.
Oisin Murphy may have little choice but to push forward and try to get across before the bend, potentially costing valuable energy.
Add in ground that may be faster than ideal and his Arc task has become considerably harder.
Stall 16: Diamond Necklace
Nobody wanted stall 16. Seriously. Nobody! Diamond Necklace was already stepping into unknown territory over 2,400 metres and the widest draw increases the possibility that she will cover extra ground.
Trying to move across early could use valuable energy, while staying wide risks travelling farther than almost every rival.
Her odds lengthened following the draw, which says plenty about how the market viewed it.
Has the Arc Draw Changed the Race?
Thursday evening’s draw strengthened the cases of several horses already high in the betting.
Daryz has stall five and another chance to get the economical trip that helped him win last year. Kalpana has arguably done even better in six, historically the most successful Arc stall of the modern period.
Thundering On in three and Varandir in four also received excellent positions.
At the other end, the Japanese pair have been given a difficult hand. Admire Terra starts from 12 and Meisho Tabaru from 13, leaving both with far more work to do in the opening part of the race.
Maltese Cross in 11 has also lost a little appeal purely because of the draw, while Diamond Necklace’s stall 16 could be particularly costly when she is attempting the distance for the first time.
The draw will never decide the Arc on its own. Great horses have won from wide stalls before, including Treve from 15 and Golden Horn from 14.
But with 24 of the last 29 Longchamp winners coming from the inside eight, history is difficult to ignore.
And if the 2026 Arc comes down to fine margins, Daryz, Kalpana and Thundering On may be very grateful for what happened at Thursday night’s draw.
BETFRED
