Day two of the Grand National meeting always has a different feel at Aintree. The fences might not be quite as big for the hurdlers, but the Grand Sefton Novices’ Hurdle still asks a very simple question: who can gallop, jump, and keep going over three miles on one of racing’s most famous stages?
This year’s renewal brings together a proper mix: Cheltenham heroes, improving stayers, and a couple of Irish raiders trying to spoil the home party.
It sits in that sweet spot for casual fans with big trainers, recognisable jockeys, Grade 1 status, and the winner walking away with a very handy £56,270.
If you’re not a form obsessive, don’t worry. Think of this as a “who’s who” guide today’s 4:40, with just enough detail to sound clued-up without needing to pretend you’ve been following novice hurdles since October!
The Joint Favourites: Johnny’s Jury and No Drama This End
At the time of writing this piece, Johnny’s Jury jointly heads the market, and he comes here with what you might call the “classic” Sefton profile.
He’s six, he stays strongly, and he arrives on a roll after winning the Albert Bartlett over three miles at Cheltenham, where he outstayed a big field in testing conditions.
That win, added to earlier novice successes at Exeter and Carlisle, has pushed his official rating up to 147 and marked him out as one of the season’s better staying novice hurdlers.
Trained by Jamie Snowden and ridden by Jonathan Burke, he’s done little wrong so far over hurdles and looks tailor-made for another long-distance slog round Aintree.
On the other side of the book, you’ve got No Drama This End, who represents Paul Nicholls and Sam Twiston-Davies.
He strung together a neat hat-trick earlier in the season, winning three on the bounce, including the Grade 1 Challow Novices Hurdle, and showing he had both a turn of foot and the stamina to see out intermediate trips.
Things went wrong at Cheltenham in the Turners, where he was pulled up, but that run came on a tough track in a messy race, and the market seems happy to forgive him.
Officially rated 144, he’s not far behind Johnny’s Jury on paper and feels like the “reset and rebound” horse: if Aintree suits him better, he can easily bounce back to his best.
In simple terms, Johnny’s Jury is the proven strong stayer who just keeps grinding, while No Drama This End is the slicker type you sense still has a bit more to reveal if the cards fall his way.
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The Dangers In Behind
There’s depth here, and several could make the favourites work for it.
Mondoui’boy is one of the more obvious threats. Trained by Ben Pauling, he has already shown he can operate at a good level, clocking up novice wins and producing a solid fourth in better company last time.
He has form over a trip and an official rating of 142, which puts him right in the conversation if he finds a little extra for the longer distance and the Aintree atmosphere.
Dalston Lad is another to note; he’s got a string of ones next to his name and comes here on the back of three straight wins, including distance success at Haydock, which is never a bad sign at this meeting.
Trained by Dan Skelton and ridden by Harry Skelton, he is clearly thriving, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he outran that mark now he steps into a Grade 1. If you like horses who are simply in good nick, he’s your type.
Paul Nicholls isn’t relying solely on No Drama This End, because Talk To The Man lines up too. He might be a bit more under the radar, but he’s done nothing wrong recently, winning two on the spin since returning from a break and giving the impression longer trips would suit.
Nicholls is good at placing this kind of improving second-string in big races, and Harry Cobden taking the ride is no bad advert for his chance.
From Ireland, Zeus Power isn’t the only raider, but he is the one who has been catching the attention.
Trained by Joseph O’Brien, he has form figures packed with ones and twos and produced a big run in the Turners at Cheltenham, where he finished a staying-on third after being held up off the pace.
You can throw in a few more as place players: Kripticjim has already won a couple of decent novice events, Harbour Island arrives off back-to-back wins, and Shadow Paddy has been busy and successful in Ireland, racking up victories since having a tongue-tie fitted.
At bigger prices, they’re the sort that can sneak into the frame if the race turns into a test of staying power and nerve.
What The Trends Are Telling Us
If you like a bit of history with your betting slip, the Grand Sefton trends are fairly straightforward.
In the last nine renewals, all the winners have been six or seven years old, which is reassuring for most of this field, and the race has been dominated by British trainers in that spell.
Only two of those nine favourites have actually won, though, which is a quiet reminder that this isn’t always as simple as “top of the market equals winner”.
On profile, Johnny’s Jury pretty much ticks the typical Sefton winner box: he’s six, he stays, he arrives off a strong Cheltenham run, and he’s trained in Britain.
No Drama This End is also six and comes from a yard that knows Aintree inside out, but that pulled-up effort last time makes him a slightly trickier sell if you’re leaning heavily on recent form.
The slightly awkward bit for trend-watchers is Zeus Power. He breaks the recent ‘UK trainers only’ pattern by flying the flag for Ireland, but he feels like the sort of horse who could easily be the exception.
He’s only five, so he misses the neat six-to-seven age band, yet he already has a high rating, festival form, and that eye-catching Turners run that suggests stamina should be no issue over three miles.
Plenty of tipsters have latched on to him for exactly that reason, including Racing Post columnist Paul Kealy, who has pointed out that the race looks made for him if he sees out the trip as expected.
Purely on trends, you’d probably side with Johnny’s Jury as the “most likely” winner. Factor in current vibes and tipster chat, though, and Zeus Power becomes very hard to ignore as the runner most likely to shake up that recent Sefton pattern.
BETFRED
