Finding a Travers Stakes outsider in 2026 is slightly harder than usual because this is a seriously good field.
Golden Tempo has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. Renegade has the Arkansas Derby and Jim Dandy on his record. Napoleon Solo won the Preakness, Baby Vino won the Haskell, and Sea Strike arrives after an 8¼-length victory at Saratoga.
There are winners everywhere. That does not necessarily mean the race will be dominated by the shortest-priced horses.
Two runners further down the betting make particular appeal if you are looking for something at bigger odds.
Travers Stakes Outsider – Silent Tactic
Silent Tactic might not even feel like a true outsider once you look properly at his form. The Mark Casse-trained colt has raced seven times and finished in the first three on every occasion.
He won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn before finishing second in the Rebel Stakes and then again behind Renegade in the Arkansas Derby.
That would normally have put him right in the middle of the Triple Crown season. Instead, a foot problem kept him out through the spring.
His return in the Jim Dandy was therefore particularly interesting. He hadn’t raced for around four months and faced Renegade and Commandment, two horses who had already established themselves among the better members of this generation.
He travelled much closer to the pace than he had in some of his earlier races and was still fighting in the closing stages.
Renegade eventually won, but Silent Tactic was only 2½ lengths behind in third and produced a career-best 94 Beyer Speed Figure.
Casse admitted beforehand that he would have considered being beaten around eight lengths a satisfactory comeback. Instead, with a furlong to run, he briefly thought Silent Tactic might win.
That gives the Travers performance a rather different look because this time Silent Tactic has had a full preparation.
He has continued working at Saratoga and produced a solid five-furlong breeze on August 19th.
He has drawn post 10, which is not ideal, but Luis Saez knows him, and there is enough tactical speed available to avoid becoming stuck too far behind.
At his current odds, Silent Tactic makes far more sense to me as an each-way or place contender than his price might first suggest.
Leading Change at 12/1
Leading Change is the opposite type of outsider. With Silent Tactic, we know plenty, but with Leading Change, almost everything is based on what he might become.
The Brad Cox-trained colt has made only two starts, but he has won both!
After starting his career with a maiden victory, Leading Change was immediately sent into the Grade 3 Indiana Derby.
That is a very big jump for a horse having his second race, but he won again. Cox subsequently said that his numbers compared well enough with the Travers contenders and that he expected the colt to handle the 1¼-mile distance.
The trainer has also been able to put some serious work into him since the Indiana Derby, including a five-furlong workout in 59.80 seconds at Churchill Downs.
What nobody can know is how he reacts when things become difficult.
The Travers is not the Indiana Derby, and Golden Tempo, Renegade, Napoleon Solo and several others have already experienced major fields, large crowds and tough Grade 1 finishes.
That lack of experience is why he is 12/1 rather than somewhere near Sea Strike’s 5/1. It is also what makes him interesting.
Running from stall two, Manny Franco should be able to save plenty of ground, and if Leading Change can stay close enough without getting dragged into a battle early, he may still have plenty left when the race becomes serious.
Which Outsider Makes the Most Appeal?
Of the pair, Silent Tactic looks the safer option. His Jim Dandy run gives us a direct line to Renegade, and there are good reasons to think he should be fitter this time.
Leading Change carries much more risk, but he also has the appeal of a horse whose best may still be some way ahead.
At 10/1 and 12/1 respectively, neither needs to win to offer an interesting each-way betting angle.
If I were choosing one outsider to finish in the first three, it would be Silent Tactic.
If I wanted the bigger swing at a horse capable of producing a major surprise, Leading Change would be the one.
BETFRED
