The betting market for the 2026 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe has taken shape ahead of Sunday’s huge race at ParisLongchamp, and defending champion Daryz remains the horse everyone has to beat.
Sixteen runners are due to line up for the €5 million Group 1 over a mile and a half, with the race scheduled for 3.05pm UK time on Sunday, October 4th.
Conditions are currently expected to be around good, with the possibility of the surface drying further before the race.
The draw has also added another piece to the puzzle, with some of the leading contenders getting far better starting positions than others.
So where does the value lie in the 2026 Arc odds market?
Latest 2026 Arc Odds
*Odds from Betfred correct at time of publication
| No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daryz | M Barzalona | F Graffard | 13/8 |
| 9 | Kalpana | Colin Keane | A M Balding | 5/1 |
| 15 | Thundering On | Pierre-Charles Boudot | J P O’Brien | 7/1 |
| 14 | Maltese Cross | Tom Marquand | W J Haggas | 15/2 |
| 11 | Varandir | C Lecoeuvre | F Graffard | 12/1 |
| 16 | Diamond Necklace | C Soumillon | A P O’Brien | 14/1 |
| 12 | Benvenuto Cellini | R L Moore | A P O’Brien | 18/1 |
| 10 | Friendly Soul | James Doyle | J & T Gosden | 20/1 |
| 8 | Minnie Hauk | W Buick | A P O’Brien | 22/1 |
| 2 | Saddadd | Ray Dawson | R Varian | 33/1 |
| 5 | Meisho Tabaru | Yutaka Take | Mamoru Ishibashi | 33/1 |
| 7 | Bay City Roller | Oisin Murphy | George Scott | 33/1 |
| 4 | Admire Terra | C Demuro | Yasuo Tomomichi | 100/1 |
| 13 | Bright Light | B Marie | A Suborics | 100/1 |
| 6 | Arrow Eagle | I Mendizabal | J C Rouget | 125/1 |
| 3 | Chestnut Rocket | M Grandin | Mme A Karkosa | 200/1 |
Daryz Remains the Clear Arc Favourite
It is easy to understand why Daryz is around 13/8 and will go off as this year’s race favourite.
He won this race last season and has returned in 2026 looking every bit as good. Victories in the Prix Ganay and Prix d’Ispahan were followed by a comfortable success in the Prix Foy, giving him an almost perfect preparation for his Arc defence.
He has now won seven of his eight races at Longchamp, so there are few doubts about the track, trip or conditions, and his draw in stall five is another positive.
The question is whether 13/8 offers enough value in a 16-runner Arc.
History is certainly against him. No colt has won consecutive Arcs since Alleged completed the double in 1978. Treve and Enable have achieved the feat since, but both were mares.
Daryz may well win, but backing a horse at less than 2/1 in an Arc means accepting a short price in a race where traffic, pace and positioning can make a huge difference.
Maltese Cross Looks a Serious Threat
At around 15/2, Maltese Cross sits firmly among the main challengers, but his biggest advantage is that we already know he can produce his best form at Longchamp.
William Haggas’s three-year-old won the Grand Prix de Paris over the Arc course and distance before following up in the Great Voltigeur at York. His only defeat this season came on softer ground in the Derby.
Connections have made no secret of wanting a quicker surface, so the drying conditions in Paris could suit him.
Stall 11 is not perfect, particularly when compared with Daryz and Kalpana, but it is hardly impossible.
At more than three times the price of the favourite, Maltese Cross has a strong case for anyone wanting to oppose Daryz.
Has the Draw Made Kalpana the Value Pick?
Kalpana could be one of the most interesting runners from a betting point of view.
She finished only seventh in last year’s Arc, but the very soft ground was against her. Her performances during 2026 have shown just how effective she can be over a mile and a half on a faster surface.
Victory in the King George at Ascot was followed by another Group 1 success in the Yorkshire Oaks, and, more importantly, she has landed stall six, immediately alongside Daryz in five.
The market has taken notice. Kalpana was around 7/1 before the draw but has been available closer to 5/1 since, with strong support following the stall announcement.
She has the draw, conditions and proven 12-furlong form to make her a major player.
Thundering On Could Still Be Overlooked
If there is one runner just outside the first three in the betting who could shorten before Sunday, it may be Thundering On.
The Oaks winner is around 7/1 and has been handed stall three; a combination makes her particularly interesting.
She receives the valuable three-year-old filly allowances and already has Classic form over a mile and a half, and her victory in the Blandford Stakes last time showed that she remains in good form heading into Paris.
There is a slight question over whether she would prefer a little more ease in the ground, but 7/1 looks far more appealing than taking a very short price about the favourite.
Diamond Necklace Hit Hard by Stall 16
Diamond Necklace was one of the more interesting runners before the draw as a multiple Group 1 winner who has won the French 1,000 Guineas, Prix de Diane and Nassau Stakes.
However, her Arc task became far harder when she was allocated stall 16, the widest draw of all. She is also trying a mile and a half for the first time.
At around 14/1, there is clearly plenty of quality behind the price, but her draw means Christophe Soumillon could have an awkward decision to make soon after the gates open.
Friendly Soul at 20/1 Could Be the Each-Way Play
For those looking further down the market, Friendly Soul at around 20/1 makes plenty of appeal.
The mare secured her Arc place by winning the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp in a course-record time, showing that fast conditions hold no fear. She has also landed stall seven, putting her close to Daryz and Kalpana.
James Doyle may attempt to race prominently, and if he can get her to settle into a good position without using too much energy, they could still be involved when the race begins to get serious.
At 20/1, even a place would produce a useful return.
One Big-Priced Outsider to Consider
At the bigger prices, Saddadd at around 33/1 is worth some thought.
Roger Varian’s four-year-old won the Grosser Preis von Baden over a mile and a half on his latest start, showing that he belongs at Group 1 level.
He has stall nine, which gives Ray Dawson options without leaving him stranded on the outside, and while he needs to improve again to beat the best horses here, that is reflected in the price.
For anyone looking for a runner at 30/1 or bigger who could outrun his odds, Saddadd makes more sense than several of those around him in the market.
2026 Arc Betting Verdict
Daryz deserves to be favourite. He is the defending champion, loves Longchamp and has landed a good draw. But 13/8 is short enough in a 16-runner Arc.
Maltese Cross has the course-and-distance form and should enjoy the likely ground, while Kalpana looks particularly well placed from stall six.
For each-way players, Friendly Soul is hard to ignore at around 20/1. She has a good draw, loves quick ground and arrives after winning at Longchamp.
Thundering On also makes plenty of appeal at a shorter price, especially from stall three.
The Arc rarely goes exactly as expected, and that is a major part of its appeal.
With Daryz trying to make history, several strong challengers receiving weight, and a number of outsiders with genuine Group 1 form, the 2026 renewal has plenty of betting angles beyond simply backing the favourite.
BETFRED
