The Flemington Autumn Carnival draws to a close on Saturday, March 28, with the 165th running of the TAB Australian Cup.
Run over 2000 metres at weight-for-age, the $2 million contest has long been a race that exposes the true top-level performers, and this year’s field looks well up to that standard.
For punters following the Australian Cup, the race also highlights how modern betting habits continue to evolve, with many PayID deposit casino sites for Aussies now offering faster, more convenient ways to fund wagering accounts ahead of major Group 1 events.
This ease of access means bettors can react quickly to market moves, late odds shifts, and track conditions, all of which play a crucial role when assessing a high-quality 2000m contest like this.
Birdman Sets The Standard
Birdman heads the market and arrives with plenty in his favour. Now trained by Chris Waller and ridden by Ben Melham, the five-year-old has built his preparation steadily, improving with each run.
After a fourth in the Listed Elms Handicap over 1400 metres, he stepped forward to win both the Blamey Stakes and the Peter Young Stakes.
The move to 2000 metres looks to suit, and having already beaten several of these rivals last time, he sets a clear benchmark. The only small question is his record at this level, but everything about his recent runs suggests he is ready to take that step.
Tom Kitten and Pride Of Jenni Bring Star Power
Tom Kitten comes into the race off a major win in the All-Star Mile, where he finished strongly to come out on top over the Flemington mile.
Trained by Anthony and Sam Freedman and ridden by Craig Williams, he brings both class and strong form into the race. There are, however, a couple of points to weigh up.
He has yet to win third-up, and a wide draw means he may need things to fall his way early. Even so, his overall profile keeps him firmly in the mix.
Pride Of Jenni adds another layer to the race and is one of the more interesting runners at the head of the betting.
With earnings of more than $11 million and a second-place finish in this race in 2024, her record speaks for itself.
She showed she still retains her ability when third in the All-Star Mile, though her runs can vary. On her best form she is more than capable of winning, but predicting exactly what she will produce is not always straightforward.
The Defending Champion and the Main Value Angle
The defending champion, Light Infantry Man, returns to try to repeat last year’s success.
Trained by Ciaron Maher, the seven-year-old was beaten by Birdman in the Peter Young Stakes but has a solid record at Flemington, with two wins and a placing from four runs. He is likely to be involved again and looks set to play a part if things fall into place.
Apulia has followed Birdman home in both of his runs this preparation, finishing second in the Blamey and Peter Young Stakes. Now stepping up to 2000 metres, he looks well placed to run another strong race.
His earlier career includes a narrow defeat in the VRC Derby and a win in the Group 2 Perth Cup, which points to his ability at this trip. At around 9/1, he stands out as a solid each-way option.
Others with Claims in a Strong Field
Leica Lucy, another from the Chris Waller yard, shaped well in the All-Star Mile and now moves up in distance. The 2000 metres looks likely to suit her running style, and she has already shown her ability at Group 1 level in New Zealand.
While she is still searching for a breakthrough win in Australia, she has been competitive in strong races and remains one to consider.
Elsewhere in the field, Sabaj produced a good run when fourth in the All-Star Mile and now steps up in trip, which could bring further improvement.
Mark Twain finished strongly behind Birdman in the Blamey Stakes on his return and would need to build on that effort here. Just Fine, Damask Rose, and Basilinna all face a much tougher task at this level.
Australian Cup Verdict
This year’s Australian Cup looks to revolve around Birdman, Tom Kitten, and Pride Of Jenni, with Apulia not far behind them.
Birdman has done little wrong in his preparation and appears to be peaking at the right time. Tom Kitten brings strong recent form but may need some luck from his draw, while Pride Of Jenni remains the unpredictable factor that could shape the race in a number of ways.
Apulia, at its current price, looks the most appealing option for those looking beyond the favourites.
