Not since Hedgehunter romped to victory in 2005 had Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins seen the inside of the winner’s enclosure at the Grand National. Despite all his incredible success, it was the one race that had eluded him for nearly twenty years.
All of that changed in 2024 when, on the back of an already phenomenal season, Mullins saddled eight runners in the Aintree race, knowing that he needed to win to have any chance at the British Trainers Championship title.
Of the eight, it was clear that I Am Maximus held his best chance. Donned in the green and gold hoops of JP McManus and ridden by leading Paul Townend, the eight-year-old went off as the 7/1 joint favourite alongside McManus’s other race favourite, Limerick Lace.
In a race worthy of the gladiators, I Am Maximus lived up to his name and, running an almost perfect race, sealed victory for connections and propelled Mullins up the championship table.
With antepost odds available almost immediately after the 2024 race ended, it was no surprise that Maximus was installed as the bookie’s favourite. There is every chance he could win it again; after all, Mullins has proved it with both Al Boum Photo (2019, 2020) and Galopin Des Champs (2023, 2024) winning consecutive Gold Cups at Cheltenham.
But the Grand National is an entirely different prospect. It’s like hitting the jackpot on the same casino slot machine twice – almost impossible but absolutely unforgettable when it happens.
So can I Am Maximus do it? History is not on his side, but if one man can defy the odds, it is Willie Mullins.
How Difficult is it to Win Two in a Row?
I’m going to use a couple of generalisations here to emphasise how difficult it is to win consecutive Grand Nationals.
On average, 40 horses have run in each National so over the last 100 years, so approximately 4000 have taken part in the race. Of course, that doesn’t include those who have run more than once or renewals when the field was slightly larger or smaller than average – but it gives you a good idea.
Of those approximately 4000 runners, there have been 88 winners. There was no Grand National for five years during 1941 – 1945 due to WWII; there was a void race in 1993, and 2020 was cancelled due to the COVID pandemic.
And of those 88 winners, only Reynoldstown (1935, 1936), Red Rum (1973, 1974), and Tiger Roll (2018, 2019) ever won the race two years in a row.
Statistically that is just 3.4% of all winners. More importantly, it is a miniscule 0.075% of all runners since 1924.
To give some context, that is roughly the same chance of becoming an astronaut if you applied to NASA (12 candidates from 18,000 applications in 2017).
So just who will I Am Maximus have to emulate if he wants to win again in 2025?
Reynoldstown
Trained by Major Noel Furlong and ridden by his son Frank Furlong, Reynoldstown claimed victory in 1935. Carrying 11-04 and going off on odds of 22/1 he was by no means the favourite given that Golden Miller was also running in the race.
With only six finishers, he claimed the victory and headed back in 1936 to repeat the feat.
Once again ridden by Frank Furlong, his odds the second time around had plummeted to just 10/1 but his weight had been increased significantly to 12-02. That didn’t stop him and so he ran into the history books with this two wins.
Red Rum
Perhaps the most famous Grand National horse of all time, Red Rum won his first race in 1973. Ridden by jockey Brian Fletcher and trained by Ginger McCain, Red Rum made a stunning comeback to win after trailing in second place at the final fence.
He defended his title in 1974, once again showcasing his incredible stamina and exceptional ability to handle the demands of the Grand National. He would go on to win a third time in 1977, though not consecutively.
Tiger Roll
Tiger Roll, trained by Gordon Elliott and ridden by jockey Davy Russell, won his first Grand National in 2018. Known for his smaller stature, Tiger Roll proved that heart and determination could triumph over physical size.
In 2019, Tiger Roll became the first horse since Red Rum to win back-to-back Grand Nationals. His victory was marked by a dominant performance, and his success made him a fan favourite.
With the race cancelled in 2020 and owner Michael O’Leary withdrawing him in 2021 over the weight he had been allocated, we will never know if he could have done the impossible and won the race three times.
Difficult Path For I Am Maximus
I Am Maximus faces an uphill battle in attempting to win the race again in 2025. The weight he will carry is likely to be higher due to his previous victory, adding to the difficulty.
The competition will also be fiercer, with trainers and horses specifically targeting the 2025 race with the aim of dethroning the reigning champion.
While he has proven his ability once, the history of the Grand National suggests that winning back-to-back races is an accomplishment reserved for only the most extraordinary horses.
The road to repeating that success will be filled with obstacles but as we look forward to the 2025 renewal, it remains to be seen whether I Am Maximus can join the ranks of the few legendary horses that have managed to conquer the Grand National twice in a row.
