The 2026 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby brings together the Epsom Derby winner and the horse whose chance there effectively ended in the starting stalls, with Benvenuto Cellini now favourite to make amends at The Curragh.
Benvenuto Cellini arrives today as market leader for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, having been denied a fair shot at the Derby at Epsom.
Sent off favourite at Epsom, he missed the break after his near hind leg became caught on the running board in the stalls as they opened, leaving him effectively starting on three legs and unable to get out on terms.
Although he finished well down the field, he was subsequently declared a non‑runner under updated BHA powers, with officials ruling he was not afforded a fair start.
That ruling turned a disappointing finishing position into a void effort on his record, but the incident still left a question mark hanging over a key career target.
Today’s Irish Derby, therefore, serves as a straightforward next test of his calibre at 1m4f, on more suitable ground and without the uncertainty created by Epsom’s stalls drama.
Benvenuto Cellini, Raaheeb, Christmas Day
Benvenuto Cellini heads most early lists at around 15/8, with Ryan Moore choosing him over stablemate Christmas Day.
His standout piece of form remains a decisive Chester Vase success over 1m4f, where he drew clear by a significant margin to mark himself out as a leading middle‑distance three‑year‑old.
On official figures, he is rated 114, not quite the best in the field but certainly high enough to justify his position at the top of the betting markets.
Raaheeb sits second in the betting at around 5/2. Trained by Owen Burrows and ridden by Rossa Ryan, he is unbeaten in two starts and comes here off a convincing win in the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown in April, where he scored by over three lengths and impressed with the way he saw out the trip.
Christmas Day, at approximately 4/1, is the proven Classic winner in the field, having landed the Epsom Derby on June 6th under Ronan Whelan.
He made the best of testing conditions there, racing close to the pace and staying on strongly to win by just under three lengths, giving Aidan O’Brien his 12th success in the English Derby.
With the strongest achieved form on soft or testing ground, the main question for him today is how effectively that level transfers to quicker conditions at The Curragh.
The Rest of the Field
James J Braddock, trained by Joseph O’Brien and ridden by Dylan Browne McMonagle, brings solid Classic form having finished third behind Christmas Day at Epsom.
He has already won in Ireland, making him a logical contender to run well again if the race sets up for a strong stayer.
Pierre Bonnard represents Aidan O’Brien and Wayne Lordan and comes here after finishing midfield at Epsom, where he was seventh.
He has shown useful form at Group level, and looks one of the more exposed runners, but remains capable of making the frame if reproducing his better efforts.
Action is another Ballydoyle runner, partnered by Declan McDonogh, and was further back at Epsom when finishing 12th.
Earlier pieces of form suggest he is a capable colt, though he needs to step forward on recent efforts to trouble the principals at this level.
Bunyola Bay, trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Sean Levey, has already won in Ireland, having taken a valuable contest at Gowran Park earlier in the month to secure free entry to this race.
He moves up in class significantly here, but that Gowran success shows he can travel and handle Irish tracks, which offers some basis for a competitive showing.
Shaihaan completes the field for Donnacha O’Brien (Aidan O’Brien’s son and Joseph O’Brien’s brother) and Tom Marquand.
He arrives with winning form at a lower grade, but on both achieved ratings and market position, he appears to face a stiff task against established Group‑class opposition.
Irish Derby Prediction
Recent Irish Derbys have tended to favour runners bringing strong Classic or recognised trial form at 1m2f–1m4f, often from major middle‑distance yards and with proven stamina for the trip.
In this field, the two clearest matches for those trends are Christmas Day, the Epsom Derby winner, and Benvenuto Cellini, who produced a dominant performance in the Chester Vase and was trusted as favourite at Epsom before the stalls incident.
From a form perspective, Christmas Day brings the single best piece of race evidence, having already won a Derby, but that performance came on testing ground that will not be replicated today.
Benvenuto Cellini’s profile combines a clear 1m4f trial win on a sounder surface with the strong vote of confidence implied by Moore’s choice, and he has yet to show his full ability in a Classic run conducted under normal conditions.
Raaheeb’s Sandown win is an excellent pointer, and his unbeaten record is positive, but he still needs to translate trial form into Group 1 performance against seasoned Classic horses.
Balancing those factors, Benvenuto Cellini emerges as the most likely winner on trends and available form. He has already shown Group‑class ability at the trip, comes from the dominant Irish Derby yard, and can treat Epsom as a non‑representative outing rather than a form concern.
The Epsom-Curragh Double On The Line
The Irish Derby, run over 1m4f at The Curragh, is Ireland’s premier three‑year‑old Classic and regularly draws the Epsom Derby winner and other leading colts from Britain and Ireland.
Aidan O’Brien has an exceptional record in the race and is seeking his 18th Irish Derby victory, having repeatedly used the fixture to confirm or enhance the status of his top middle‑distance horses.
One notable historical detail is that Christmas Day is bidding to become the 21st colt to complete the Epsom–Curragh Derby double, underlining how often the winners of these two races overlap despite differences in track layout and typical ground conditions.
Today’s running therefore not only offers Benvenuto Cellini a chance to put Epsom’s controversy behind him, but also tests whether Christmas Day can join that group of dual Derby winners while facing a fresher and more straightforward challenge from his stablemate and Raaheeb.
BETFRED
