The comparisons between Favori De Champdou and Tiger Roll write themselves, and trainer Gordon Elliott has done nothing to discourage them.
Tiger Roll was that horse. He won this race twice, in 2018 and 2019, owned by Gigginstown House Stud, trained by Gordon Elliott, after becoming one of the most unlikely dual Grand National winners the race has ever seen.
Favori De Champdou is trained by Gordon Elliott. He is owned by Gigginstown House Stud. He is a horse who has spent the last year discovering that the more fences he jumps, the better he gets.
And he is heading to Aintree for the first time at 40/1. Make of that what you will.
The Season That Changed the Story
A year ago, Favori De Champdou was a horse with a decent but unremarkable career. Placed in races over hurdles, some wins in novice chases, and the odd good run in handicaps. Nothing that pointed emphatically towards a Grand National entry.
Then came Leopardstown at Christmas. Running in the Paddy Power Chase at 66/1 under Sam Ewing, a jockey getting one of those rare opportunities when the first-choice riders are otherwise engaged, Favori De Champdou led from the front, was headed approaching the last, and then found more.
He battled back, held off his stablemate Search for Glory on the run-in, and won one of the biggest handicaps of the Christmas festival.
The Cheltenham Trials Win
A month later, back at Cheltenham for the cross-country race on Trials Day in January, everything came together.
Carrying top weight of twelve stone in a field of sixteen, Favori De Champdou put in a performance that evoked exactly the kind of comparison Elliott’s team had in mind. He won by eight and a half lengths.
The racing world sat up. Tiger Roll had won four cross-country races at Cheltenham. He had been trained by Elliott for Gigginstown. He had carried big weights, jumped enthusiastically, and found a new level in the second half of his career.
Favori De Champdou was following the same path.
The Festival Run and What It Tells Us
At the Cheltenham Festival in March, Favori De Champdou returned for the big cross-country prize as the 2/1 favourite. He was beaten by two and a quarter lengths.
Jockey Jack Kennedy was philosophical. “He jumped well but probably spent a bit too long at the last,” the jockey said. “He was carrying extra weight against a winner who was thriving on good ground.”
The Irish Examiner noted that Favori De Champdou had been raised eight pounds for his January win, which was effectively the difference between winning and losing at the Festival.
He was not beaten because he had run badly. He was beaten because the handicapper had reacted to his win, the ground had dried, and his opponent had improved. There is no disgrace in any of that.
How About The Grand National?
This is where the honest conversation begins. At 11 years old, Favori De Champdou is outside the age range from which most National winners come.
The sweet spot over the past two decades runs from eight to ten, with ten already considered the outer limit.
Eleven-year-olds can and do win the National, but they have to be horses at the very top of their game, in the form of their lives, with everything going their way.
The weight of 11st 1lb is manageable and sits within the range that has produced most recent winners.
He is Irish-trained. He has shown in the past twelve months that he has a renewed enthusiasm for jumping, which matters enormously around Aintree.
He stays extreme distances, which is the non-negotiable requirement of this race.
He has no previous Grand National experience, though the Cheltenham cross-country course, with its varied fences, ditches and turns, is arguably better preparation for Aintree than a conventional chase.
The recent form profile is solid. He finished second at the Cheltenham Festival last month, well within the window that National winners typically come from.
He won his previous start. He arrives fit, in form, and with the confidence of a trainer who knows exactly what it takes to get a horse ready for the occasion.
The 40/1 Question
At 40/1, Favori De Champdou is not priced as a serious contender. The age is the primary reason, and it is a legitimate one.
But consider the broader picture. He is owned and trained by the same combination that produced Tiger Roll.
He has found a new lease of life over extreme distances and cross-country fences. He won by eight and a half lengths at Cheltenham, carrying twelve stone. He ran second at the Festival as favourite.
Elliott knows what a potential National horse looks like. He has trained three winners of this race.
When the same man who produced Tiger Roll points a cross-country specialist who won carrying top weight at Cheltenham at Aintree, at 40/1, it is worth at least a moment’s consideration.
BETFRED
