Every spring, as the Grand National looms into view, the same question pops up: does the favourite actually win this race very often? The quick answer is not really.
Look at the past 20 years. From 2006 to 2025, there were nineteen runnings, with no race in 2020 due to the pandemic. In that time, the favourites, including joint-favourites, won five times.
Take away the joints, and you are left with just two clear market leaders who delivered. That is roughly a one-in-four strike rate if you count joint-favourites, and closer to one-in-ten if you do not.
That is worth remembering before you decide on which horse to back. If you’re unsure, check out sites like bettingapps.uk.com, which features detailed comparisons of top betting apps, so you can find enhanced odds, free bet bonuses, and user-friendly platforms tailored to the big race.
By using the right betting strategy, you can potentially maximise your returns and make the most of special Grand National promotions.
Why The Favourite Struggles
The Grand National is not your standard handicap chase. It is over four miles, with thirty fences, a long run to the elbow, and more pressure than most horses will ever face in their career.
Even proven stayers can find the final stretch unforgiving. Jumping fluency matters. Rhythm matters. One mistake, even after three and a half miles of perfect work, can be the end of the story.
Until recently, the field could be as big as forty. Since 2024, the safety limit has been trimmed to thirty-four. That helps, but it is still a large field with plenty that can go wrong. Loose horses, changes in pace, and split-second decisions can ruin a favourite’s chance in a heartbeat.
Then there is the weight factor. This is a handicap, so the best horses on paper carry more. At two miles, an extra two or three pounds can be brushed off.
At Aintree, after the last fence, those pounds can feel like lead. Add the unique mental test of the huge crowd and the long wait at the start, and you have a race that can rattle even the most seasoned chaser.
The shape of the race adds another layer. Early on, it can be stop–start, then quicken when gaps appear. Horses that travel comfortably for three miles can hit the wall halfway up that famous run-in.
What The Record Shows
The numbers tell the tale. In 2008, Comply Or Die won as a 7/1 joint-favourite. Two years later, Don’t Push It, another joint-favourite, landed one of the most famous victories in modern Nationals with AP McCoy finally getting his win.
Then there was a gap until Tiger Roll justified clear favouritism at 4/1 in 2019. Corach Rambler followed suit in 2023 at 8/1. The fifth success came in 2024 when I Am Maximus shared the top spot at 7/1.
And then came 2025. The market said Iroko, 13/2 favourite. He ran well, finishing fourth, but the race belonged to Nick Rockett at 33/1 for Willie and Patrick Mullins.
That is the Grand National in a nutshell: the market has its view, but the race has a mind of its own.
If you only look at clear, stand-alone favourites, the strike rate is around one in ten. That is not a sign that favourites are overrated. It is a reminder of the test they are facing.
The National demands stamina, balance, clean jumping, and composure in a race where almost anything can happen. Being top of the betting is a clue, not a guarantee.
The Wild Prices That Make the National What It Is
The Grand National’s roll of honour is littered with winners at odds that make you blink. Mon Mome at 100/1 in 2009 still looks outrageous on paper.
Auroras Encore at 66/1 in 2013, Rule The World at 33/1 in 2016, Noble Yeats at 50/1 in 2022, Nick Rockett at 33/1 in 2025, all looked unlikely at the start, all were obvious winners by the finish.
It works the other way, too. Many favourites have had rock-solid credentials: strong staying form, safe jumping, big-race experience. But the National adds challenges you cannot rehearse in a prep race.
A horse that looks bulletproof in a three-mile chase on park fences can feel a different animal when it meets the Chair or the Canal Turn. One slight check, one mistimed stride, and everything changes.
Betting Without Leaning on the Favourite
There is no single blueprint for finding the winner, but a few sensible rules help. If the favourite’s price feels short, ask yourself what you are really buying. Has the horse proved it stays four miles? Has it jumped well in a big field? Is the weight realistic for this test?
Each-way terms matter in a race like this. Extra places can turn a near-miss into a profitable bet, and the National often rewards those who take that safety net.
Late market moves can be worth noting. Don’t Push It was backed heavily on the day before winning, but that is not gospel. If your pick still ticks the right boxes, hold your nerve.
And shop around. Bookmakers vary in their place terms, boosts, and specials, so it is always best to shop around for the best Grand National deals before you part with your money. A quick look can add value without changing the horse you want to back.
When building a shortlist, start with the race profile rather than the odds. Stamina first, then jumping ability, then weight, then temperament. A horse that passes those tests is worth considering, regardless of its odds, whether it is 8/1 or 28/1.
The Bottom Line
Since 2006, five winners have started favourite or joint-favourite: Comply Or Die (2008), Don’t Push It (2010), Tiger Roll (2019), Corach Rambler (2023), and I Am Maximus (2024).
Only Tiger Roll and Corach Rambler were clear market leaders. That is why the Grand National feels so open, and why it grips once-a-year backers and seasoned punters alike.
The favourite can win. It just does not happen that often. Back one if the case is strong and the terms suit, or spread your stake across a few who fit the Aintree test and give you a live chance turning for home.
The National tends to reward the horse that stays, jumps, and keeps going when the rest are spent, not simply the one that starts favourite.
