The Grand National is the one day a year when everyone suddenly becomes a racing expert – or at least feels like they should.
You’ve got the office sweepstake ticket in one hand, a betting app in the other, and 34 horses charging around Aintree while you try to remember which one you picked.
This year, the story is all about one horse at the top of the market: I Am Maximus, the classy chaser trying to do something not seen since Red Rum in the 1970s – come back and reclaim the Grand National crown.
But what does history say about favourites vs outsiders, and how much sense does it make to swerve the obvious horse for something at a bigger price?
Do Favourites Actually Win The Grand National?
If you look at the headlines from the last few years, you’d be forgiven for thinking “just back the favourite and move on.”
Tiger Roll, Corach Rambler, and I Am Maximus himself all won as market leaders in 2019, 2023, and 2024, and the recent run has been kind to those who like the shortest price on the racecard.
Zoom out, though, and it’s a very different picture. Since the turn of the century, only six favourites (or joint favourites) have won the National from 25 runnings, a strike‑rate of about 24%.
Go all the way back through the race’s long history, and the overall record is even tougher: favourites have won roughly 17% of all Nationals run since 1839.
In other words: most of the time, the favourite doesn’t win – even in this more “favourite‑friendly” modern era. They’ve got a better chance than the rest individually, sure, but they’re still far more likely to be beaten than not.
How Many Outsiders Are We Dealing With?
Scroll through this year’s race card, and the first thing you notice is how many prices start at 20/1 and just keep going: 25/1, 28/1, 33/1, 50/1, 100/1…you get the idea.
We have 34 runners for the 2026 Grand National, and using the odds as a guide, roughly 24 of those 34 are 20/1 or bigger with Betfred.
That means around 70% of the field would comfortably count as “outsiders” in most people’s language.
So if you do like the look of something at a fancy price, you’re absolutely not on your own, you’re just shopping in the same aisle as most of the runners.
Outsiders And The Top Six: What Are The Chances?
Betfred are paying six places this year, which quietly transforms how sensible an outsider bet can be.
You’re not just asking a 40/1 shot to win the biggest race of the season – you just need it to slog its way into the top six.
A quick bit of simple maths: if around 70% of the runners are 20/1 or bigger and there are six places, then in a neutral world you’d expect roughly three or four of those places to be filled by outsiders.
Real racing doesn’t follow a calculator, but if you look back over recent Nationals, it’s completely normal to see one, two or more big‑priced horses hitting the frame.
The winners’ list tells the same story. Mon Mome popped up at 100/1 in 2009. Neptune Collonges (33/1) won in 2012, Auroras Encore (66/1) in 2013, and Noble Yeats grabbed the 2022 renewal at 50/1 as a novice. Even when a shorter‑priced horse wins, there’s often at least one chunky price filling the each‑way spots behind.
So if you’re having an each‑way bet with six places to aim at, including one or two big prices isn’t wishful thinking – it’s a reasonable way to play the stats.
I Am Maximus: The Favourite With A Red Rum‑shaped Target
Now, to the headliner. I Am Maximus isn’t just “the favourite” in a vague sense, he’s already got a first and a second in the last two Grand Nationals and turns up again as top weight.
Trained by Willie Mullins, in 2024, he stormed home to win the race by seven and a half lengths, jumping and staying like a horse made for the place. In 2025, he came back under an even bigger weight, was sent off joint‑favourite and finished second to his stablemate Nick Rockett, beaten only two and a half lengths.
That kind of Aintree record is rare. He’s already achieved more in this race than most horses who ever line up for it.
He lines up again in 2026 as a 10‑year‑old, rated 168, and carrying 11st 12lb for the second year in a row, which puts him right at the top of the handicap.
The catch? History. Only one horse, since 1899, has ever properly pulled off the “regain the National” trick, and that was Red Rum, who won in 1973 and 1974, then came back to win again in 1977 after a couple of near‑misses.
In the decades since, plenty have tried to repeat or regain the crown, but Red Rum still stands alone.
The betting market currently has I Am Maximus around the 7/1 mark with many firms, which suggests a one‑in‑seven, or 14% chance on paper.
That’s miles better than the one in 34 you’d get if every horse were equal, but it still means he’s more likely to lose than win. He’s a very solid favourite – just not a certainty.
Outsiders To Make The Case For
If you’re trying to sell the idea of an outsider to your mates, it helps to have a few names that aren’t total shots in the dark. A couple of bigger prices stand out as at least making sense on paper.
Beauport is knocking around the 100/1 mark with some firms. He stays well, has form over marathon trips, and connections reach for a tongue‑tie for the first time, which might help him finish off better than he did here last year (12th place).
At that sort of price, you’re backing the idea that he can just get into a rhythm and keep galloping into the places.
Marble Sands is another who shouldn’t be completely ignored at 66/1-80/1. He’s already won over nearly three miles four furlongs at Cheltenham on soft ground, which suggests stamina rather than speed is his thing.
Again, you don’t need him to win – you just need him to run the race of his life and nick a place.
You could also make an each‑way case for the likes of Final Orders or The Real Whacker at mid‑range prices, each with enough in their back catalogue to at least tempt the more adventurous punter.
Favourites vs Outsiders – Who Should You Back?
If you want the horse with the clearest, most obvious chance, I Am Maximus is the one that ticks all the boxes, though Panic Attack also comes quite close.
Proven at Aintree, proven over the fences, proven at the trip, trained by Willie Mullins and carrying the famous JP McManus colours – it’s a very easy horse to cheer on.
But the Grand National has always been a race where outsiders have a real say, especially now that bookmakers like Betfred are paying six places.
With roughly 70% of the field trading at 20/1 or bigger and a long history of big‑priced winners and placed horses, having one or two each‑way swings at bigger odds remains a perfectly sensible strategy.
The happiest punters on Saturday evening might well be the ones who do a bit of both: one bet on I Am Maximus for the heart, and a cheeky outsider or two for the head – and the each‑way returns!
BETFRED
