Gordon Elliott’s Gold Cup contender heads to Aintree at 50/1, but can a horse who has only run twice at 3m+ really handle four miles and two furlongs of the Grand National?
This is the question that sits at the heart of Firefox’s Grand National entry, and everyone involved knows it.
He is a genuine Grade One performer. He finished sixth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month. He ran in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in February, finishing fourth behind Fact To File in one of the strongest staying chases run in Ireland this season, and by most measures it was a decent performance.
There is no doubt about his ability at this level. What remains uncertain is something far more basic. The distance is the big unknown.
The furthest Firefox has ever run is three miles and two and a half furlongs, in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month.
The Grand National is four miles and two furlongs. There is still a significant jump to make, and whether he has the stamina to see it out will define his chances at Aintree.
A Horse Who Has Always Mixed It at the Top
Before getting stuck on what Firefox cannot do, it is worth appreciating what he can.
Since graduating from novice company, he has consistently lined up against the best chasers in training.
He opened his chase account at Down Royal in November 2024. He was placed at Leopardstown in the Grade One novice chase, and by the spring of 2025, he was taking on proper Grade One opposition.
A Career Best Over Three Miles Muddies the Water
The Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown was run over three miles on soft ground, and Firefox lined up at 33/1 against a field that included Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior, and I Am Maximus.
He finished fourth. In isolation, that does not sound like a headline result, but the company he kept that day was as strong as it gets in Irish chasing, and by the assessments of those who track these things closely, it was the best he has ever run.
He was in rear for much of the contest, still with plenty to do at the second last, then made headway and went fourth at the last before gradually weakening on the run-in.
The honest interpretation is this: his first attempt beyond two and a half miles produced his career best.
Whether that means he will stay four miles and two furlongs round Aintree is a different question entirely, but it is at least a thread of encouragement.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Jumping Question
Six weeks after Leopardstown, Firefox ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He went off at 25/1 and finished sixth of ten behind Gaelic Warrior, which, in the context of the strongest staying chase in Britain, was a decent enough effort.
There is a caveat, though, and it has followed Firefox throughout his career. His jumping has been flagged as a concern.
The Grand National is an examination of jumping above all else: thirty jumps over four miles and two furlongs, and Aintree is far less forgiving than the park courses he has been racing on.
A horse who is even occasionally untidy at his fences will find the National a harsh examiner.
Does He Fit the Grand National Winner’s Profile?
The statistics from the past twenty years paint a mixed picture. On age, Firefox is spot on: eight-year-olds sit in the sweet spot for National winners, and there is plenty of life in his legs.
His weight of 11st 4lb is heavier than the ideal range, which has produced eighteen of the last twenty winners between 10st 10lb and 11st 6lb, but he sits within that bracket, so no alarm there.
The odds of 50/1 place him well outside the zone where sixty percent of recent winners have come from, which is 8/1 to 20/1. That does not make him unbackable, but it does reflect genuine uncertainty.
He is Irish-trained, which matters: six of the last seven renewals have gone to Irish horses, and Elliott is one of the most experienced handlers in the business when it comes to preparing big-field handicappers.
Where Firefox falls short of the ideal profile is chase wins. He has only two wins from ten starts over the big fences, and the Grand National has generally suited horses with more proven match-winning ability.
More significantly, the profile calls for winners to have won over three miles, and he has not done that.
The Case For and Against
Against Firefox, you stack up the distance question, the jumping concerns, a moderate strike rate over fences, and a market that has him at long odds for good reason.
He has never been asked to race over anything approaching the National trip, and there is nothing in his form to guarantee he will stay.
At 50/1, he is a speculative each-way interest for punters who like the combination of genuine ability and an open question about stamina. If he does get the trip, he has the ability to run a big race.
Gordon Elliott knows his horses as well as anyone. There will be a reason he has pointed this one at Aintree rather than a two-and-a-half-mile Grade One.
Whether that reason is enough to bridge the gulf in distance, only four miles and two furlongs on April 11th will tell.
BETFRED
