The Scottish Grand National has a long history of throwing up surprises. Saturday's renewal at Ayr, run over three miles and seven furlongs on soft going, looks wide open at the top of the market. But it is further down the field where the interest lies.
Nobody is expecting any of these five to win. But in a staying handicap chase run on testing ground with a big field, finishing in the places is a very different ask to finishing first, and each of these horses has something genuine to offer at a price the market has largely overlooked.
Chasingouttheblues (11/1)
Perhaps the most straightforwardly in-form horse in the race. Mark Walford's seven-year-old has won his last two outings and arrives here on the back of a decent run of results, operating off an official mark of 126 which looks lenient given his recent performances.
He carries only 10st 9lb, which puts him among the lighter-weighted runners in the field and gives Jamie Hamilton every chance of producing him with a run late on. In a race where attrition plays a major part and getting round cleanly is half the battle, a fresh, well-handicapped horse who has been winning consistently is exactly the type the Scottish National can reward.
At 11/1, he may be the best each-way value in the race.
(*NON RUNNER) Ask Brewster (11/1)
The story behind Ask Brewster is one of the better ones of the season. He won the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham on March 12 at 22/1, ridden by 19-year-old Shane Cotter riding only his second winner anywhere.
Ask Brewster is now trained by Mrs C Williams and has won four of his last five starts. His official rating has climbed from 112 to 135 in the space of a single season, which tells you he has been improving at a sharp rate. He is officially allotted 11st 4lb, but Shane Cotter's 7lb claim brings the actual weight carried down to 10st 11lb, giving him a meaningful edge over his handicap mark.
A horse who has won four of his last five starts and arrived at Cheltenham to win at 22/1 a month ago is worth taking seriously at 11/1 in a race where the market is spread across a competitive field.
Montregard (9/1)
Tom Lacey's seven-year-old is the horse in this list with the most compelling case, and he deserves to be placed higher in the market than he currently is. He won his most recent completed start and put up a decent display before that, and he arrives here carrying the JP McManus colours, which are rarely wasted on a moderate horse in a big race.
Stan Sheppard keeps the ride, which matters. Continuity between horse and jockey is worth something in a race of this stamina and complexity. Lacey has shown this season that he can place horses to win, and Montregard has the profile of a horse who is still improving and hitting his peak at exactly the right time of year.
At 9/1, he is probably the most realistic win candidate in this list.
Isaac Des Obeaux (11/1)
Paul Nicholls' eight-year-old won the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter last month at 28/1, staying on strongly under Sam Twiston-Davies to go clear on the run-in. It was his second win over chase fences and, crucially, it came over four miles on soft ground, which is similar to what he faces here.
Sam Twiston-Davies retains the ride. At 11/1, the market may not yet have fully processed how good that Uttoxeter win was.
Collectors Item (40/1)
This one requires more faith than the others.
Collectors Item was pulled up at Uttoxeter in March and has been out of form for much of the season. The case for including him here is not his recent form, which has been disappointing, but what he showed in the earlier part of the campaign.
He ran a fine race in the Welsh National at Chepstow in December, finishing second in the Welsh National Trial at Haydock before that. Jonjo and AJ O'Neill have been patient with him, and there is a sense that the right conditions on the right day could still produce a performance closer to his best. He carries only 10st 13lb, which is the kind of light weight that can get a horse a long way in a staying handicap.
At 40/1 he is a long shot by any measure, and the recent form does not encourage. But for punters who like a speculative each-way interest at a big price in a race full of uncertainty, there are worse options in the field.
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Enhanced Places
Five horses, five reasons to look beyond the market leaders. The Scottish Grand National is run on testing ground over nearly four miles, and in a race like this, a well-handicapped horse travelling well can find himself in the places before connections know it.
Pick your fancy, keep the stakes sensible, and enjoy the race.
One more thing worth knowing before you place your bet: Betfred are offering five places each-way at 1/5 odds on the Scottish Grand National.
That means your place bet collects if your horse finishes anywhere in the top five. In a race where the winner is hard to predict and outsiders regularly get involved, those extra places make a real difference, particularly if you are taking a chance on one of the longer-priced runners in this list.
