Few races have produced betting stories quite like the Grand National, and for generations, part of the appeal at Aintree was the belief that almost anything could happen.
You could back one of the best staying chasers in Britain or Ireland, but somebody else could pick a horse because they liked the name, the colours or the jockey and end up collecting at 50/1.
History provided more than enough evidence to suggest that every runner had a chance, with the race producing five winners at 100/1, another four at 66/1 and five at 50/1. That is 14 winners at 50/1 or bigger.
Look a little closer at when those winners occurred, though, and the story becomes more interesting, because ten of those 14 huge-priced winners came between 1908 and 1967.
So what does that tell us about betting on the modern Grand National? Well, long shots can still win, but the race which produced many of those extraordinary results was very different from the one horses face today.
When Aintree Really Was Unpredictable
The old Grand National could be brutal. Spend ten minutes looking through archived footage and the differences are patently obvious.
The fences were enormous, unforgiving, and simply staying out of trouble could become almost as important as having the best horse.
The most famous example came in 1928 when Tipperary Tim started at 100/1 in a field of 42. By the end, only two horses completed the course, including the remounted runner-up Billy Barton.
A year later, Gregalach also won at 100/1, but this time there were an extraordinary 66 starters.
Caughoo won at 100/1 in 1947, while Foinavon produced perhaps the most famous Grand National shock of all in 1967.
Foinavon was paired with John Buckingham and was well behind the leaders when chaos broke out at the 23rd fence. Horses fell, refused, or became caught up behind others. Foinavon managed to get through, suddenly found himself clear, and went on to win at 100/1.
But these were not simply cases of bookmakers badly underestimating a horse. Betting was completely different 60 years ago.
There were no betting exchanges, no apps in your pocket and no live markets changing by the second. Modern bookmakers have access to huge amounts of data, while racing fans can compare prices across several firms within seconds and read everything from specialist racing analysis to Forza Football’s take on UK betting before placing a bet.
Back then, people placed their bets in betting shops or with on-course bookmakers, while the information available to the average bettor was far more limited than it is today. Prices were still shaped by form, reputation and weight, of course, but a 100/1 chance in the 1960s was not being assessed in quite the same market as a 100/1 horse today.
Considering the race itself was more unpredictable, it’s easier to understand why Aintree once produced so many winners at enormous prices.
The Grand National Has Changed
Aintree has spent decades changing the National in an attempt to reduce risk while keeping the race recognisable, with some of the biggest changes coming before the 2013 National.
Timber cores in the fences were replaced by more forgiving materials, the start was moved forward by around 90 yards, and landing areas at several fences were levelled.
Further changes came in 2024, when the maximum field was reduced from 40 runners to 34. The first fence was moved 60 yards closer to the start, a standing start was introduced, and Fence 11 was lowered. Entry requirements were also tightened, with the minimum handicap rating increased to 130.
Safety is clearly the reason behind those decisions, and both the Jockey Club and BHA have reported a substantial reduction in fallers over the longer term, which is exactly what the changes were intended to achieve.
The unintended consequence, however, is that the race has become far more predictable.
Less Chaos Means Form Matters More
Fewer runners mean less congestion, and more forgiving fences reduce the chance of one jumping mistake causing a major incident.
Moving the start closer to the first fence reduces the speed horses can build before jumping it, and stricter qualification rules also mean the runners at the starting tape are generally proven staying chasers of a high standard.
This isn’t a bad thing, but it does really eliminate a lot of the randomness historically associated with the Grand National.
While 34 horses jumping 30 fences over more than four miles will never be easy, it does mean that a good horse is increasingly being given a fair chance to show that it is a good horse.
The recent results are interesting in that respect. Noble Yeats certainly gave long-shot backers something to celebrate when winning at 50/1 in 2022. Corach Rambler, however, won as the 8/1 favourite in 2023.
I Am Maximus followed at 7/1 in 2024, and Nick Rockett was a genuine surprise at 33/1 in 2025, although even that result was hardly random. Willie Mullins trained the first three horses home.
Then came perhaps the strongest evidence of how the modern race has changed, when in 2026 I Am Maximus returned to Aintree, started favourite at 9/2 and won the Grand National for a second time, carrying 11st 12lb in the process.
So Should You Still Back Grand National Outsiders?
Absolutely, but there is a difference between backing an outsider and backing something simply because it has big odds.
Grand National history shows that horses at 25/1, 33/1, 50/1 and occasionally much bigger can win. What history does not tell us is that the modern race puts more emphasis on form, stamina, jumping ability and proven class.
Horses have to meet stricter conditions just to get into the field, while the smaller maximum field reduces the possibility of complete outsiders benefiting from widespread trouble ahead of them.
That, in turn, changes how long-priced bets should be viewed. Rather than searching for a horse capable of simply surviving when everybody else fails, it makes more sense to look for a horse whose odds may underestimate its actual ability.
That could be an improving staying chaser, a horse particularly well treated by the handicap, or one whose previous form suggests four miles at Aintree could bring out improvement.
There will almost certainly be another Grand National winner at 50/1. There may even be another at 100/1. But those same results also show why the days when the Grand National regularly produced completely unexpected winners may be fading.
For anyone dreaming of turning a speculative 100/1 bet into a Grand National winner, it may mean that finding the next Foinavon is harder than ever.
