bet365 Gold Cup, Saturday, 3:30, Sandown Park | 3m4½f | ITV
This is one of Sandown’s most cherished events, a fixture here under different guises since 1957, when Colonel Bill Whitbread created the first commercial sponsorship deal in British sport by putting his name to it.
The roll of honour reads like a who’s who of jumping royalty: Arkle, Desert Orchid, Mill House, Mr Frisk. Those days are gone, but the race remains a valuable and competitive end-of-season prize worth nearly £100,000, and this year’s renewal looks wide open.
The Case for Havaila
The second-favourite at around 11/2, Havaila has been building to a race like this all season. The seven-year-old, trained by Gary and Josh Moore, has won his last two starts in ready fashion and arrives here in the kind of form that makes punters confident rather than merely hopeful.
His most recent run came at Plumpton on April 6, when he landed the BetGoodwin Sussex National, winning by five lengths. Before that, he had won at Newbury by seven lengths. Two wins in 16 days, both comfortable.
He has course form and distance form on this track, and back-to-back wins makes Havaila a genuine contender at the head of the market.
The slight hesitation is his official rating of 135, which represents a significant step up in class. The field contains several horses rated considerably higher. What he lacks on paper, he makes up for in trajectory and momentum, and at 9/2 he is not without appeal if you believe the improvement is still coming, and the form guide suggests it is.
Montregard: The Danger
Tom Lacey’s Montregard, owned by JP McManus, is the favourite at 5/2 and has a slightly different profile to Havaila. Where Havaila has been winning in lower-grade company, Montregard has been competitive in better races.
His last win came at Ascot in February, when he travelled powerfully to win a competitive Grade 3 handicap by two and three-quarter lengths from Gericault Roque.
The noteworthy detail in his form is a pulled-up run at Kempton in December sandwiched between his two wins this season. That Kempton blip appeared to be a one-off, and connections have had ten weeks to prepare him for this since his February win. Stan Sheppard keeps the ride.
The question is fitness sharpness. The majority of bet365 Gold Cup winners have run within the past nine weeks. Lacey and connections will have him ready. He is the more talented horse on paper, and whether he is race-sharp enough to show it is the bet you are making.
In d’Or: The Each-Way Case
Fergal O’Brien’s eight-year-old is a fascinating runner at 6/1. He has run twice over fences this season, finishing third on both occasions: at Sandown in December on good-to-soft, and at Ascot in January on soft, beaten five and three-quarter lengths behind The Jukebox Kid while keeping on without being able to land a blow at the finish.
Neither run was a winning one, but both showed he is competitive in decent company and, crucially, he has form at this track. His Sandown run in December saw him beaten two lengths in a Class 3 handicap, keeping on but not having the pace to challenge.
Jonathan Burke, who knows him well, takes the ride. At 6/1 he offers each-way appeal for those who want to stretch their stake. O’Brien’s team have a habit of placing horses well, and there is a reasonable argument that Good ground and an extreme test of stamina over 3m4½f plays to In d’Or’s strengths more than his recent form figures suggest.
Ask Brewster: The Cheltenham Winner
Ask Brewster arrives here with a legitimate claim after winning the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival in March, no small achievement in any context. Trained by Mrs C Williams and ridden by amateur Shane Cotter, who claims a 7lb allowance.
The 7lb claim comes off his official weight, meaning he carries an effective lighter burden than his mark suggests, a meaningful advantage in a race like this. His form reads 11-151 this season, showing consistent involvement near the front of the action.
At 8/1 he is an interesting each-way runner who has already proven he can win big handicap chases at this level. If the Cheltenham run is a pointer rather than a peak, he is well worth including.
Resplendent Grey: The Defending Champion
The 12/1 on offer about Resplendent Grey is not what you would have expected at the start of the season. The Olly Murphy-trained grey won this race twelve months ago carrying 10st 2lb under Sean Bowen in a sprint finish, and he is back to defend with a very different burden: top weight of 12st 0lb.
The statistics on this race are not kind to big weights, and his form since winning here has been mixed at best. He ran second at Windsor in January behind Protektorat in a Grade 2 on soft, which was respectable. But before that he was well beaten at Newbury in November, and his most recent run at Cheltenham in March in the Ultima Handicap Chase saw him tailed off and finish last.
None of that points to a horse ready to give weight and a beating to a field this competitive. The weight alone is a serious obstacle. He carries 1st 6lb more than when he won here last year. Unless he turns up dramatically better than recent form suggests, he will find this hard going.
Others With a Chance
Road To Home (13/2) represents Willie Mullins, ridden by Mr P W Mullins in an amateur capacity. He ran a fine race at Cheltenham in March, finishing second behind Ask Brewster, pulling clear of the rest in the closing stages. Mullins knows how to have a horse ready for a big occasion, and Road To Home should not be dismissed at what are fair odds.
Rock My Way (11/1) ran a blinder at Uttoxeter in March carrying top weight of 12st, leading from an early stage but beaten eight lengths by Isaac Des Obeaux. Trainer Joe Tizzard said he “travelled great and jumped like a stag.” At 11st 0lb here he is better treated here, and Brendan Powell keeps the ride.
Transmission (14/1) is the horse who finished third at Plumpton behind Havaila earlier this month. Trainer Neil Mulholland specifically mentioned this race after that run. Longshot territory, but not without a case.
Henry’s Friend (16/1) won at Ascot in November in a Grade 3 handicap for Ben Pauling, showing a fine attitude to lead throughout. He carries 11st 6lb here and his form has been inconsistent since, but trainer Ben Pauling has described him as a natural stayer with the right profile for big marathon handicaps.
The Verdict
This race sets up as a contest between two progressive seven-year-olds in Havaila and Montregard, with Road To Home and Ask Brewster offering alternatives at bigger prices.
Havaila has the form, the conditions, and the confidence going into Saturday. His step up in class is the only reservation. Montregard has the higher ceiling and may well prove too good, but backing him requires faith that a horse returning from ten weeks off will hit the ground running first time.
For a single bet, Havaila is the straightforward call. For an each-way punt at a better price, Ask Brewster at 8/1 has shown he can handle a big-field handicap chase when the pressure is on.
Betfred are offering enhanced each-way terms on this race: 1/5 odds, four places. That makes horses like Ask Brewster particularly interesting each-way propositions.
Odds quoted are correct at time of writing and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker for the latest prices before placing a bet.
BETFRED
