With the dust settled on another thrilling Cheltenham Festival, racing fans now turn their attention to the Grand National Festival at Aintree at the beginning of April.
While the Grand National itself is the marquee race on April 5, seasoned punters and analysts alike will be looking at how horses who competed at Cheltenham perform when they return to action at Aintree just weeks later.
New analysis of 30 years of racing data (1990-2020) sheds light on a long-standing debate: Does the gruelling Cheltenham Festival take too much out of horses, or does strong form carry over to Aintree?
A study by the Racing Post has revealed that horses tend to improve at Aintree after running at Cheltenham, reinforcing the idea that class shines through despite the quick turnaround.
Key Findings:
- 3,009 horses have competed at both Cheltenham and Aintree between 1990 and 2020
- More than half (54.2%) improved their finishing position at Aintree compared to Cheltenham
- Only 34.3% performed worse, while 11.5% finished in the same position
- On average, horses finished 1.13 places better at Aintree than they did at Cheltenham
The trend has remained remarkably consistent across three decades, reinforcing the reliability of Cheltenham form at Aintree.
Cheltenham winners particularly excel at Aintree, with 67.5% finishing in the top three and over 31% winning again.
This trend has strengthened in recent years, with 33.7% of Cheltenham winners in the 2010s also winning at Aintree, compared to 18.7% in the 2000s.
While many horses improve their performance, Aintree presents a greater challenge in terms of completion rates.
Data shows horses are nearly twice as likely to fail to finish (DNF) at Aintree compared to Cheltenham, with an average DNF rate of 18.8% at Aintree versus 10.1% at Cheltenham across three decades.
Decade-by-Decade Consistency
The Cheltenham-to-Aintree trend has held steady over time:
1990s: 54.5% of horses improved, average position difference of -1.31.
2000s: 53.3% of horses improved, average position difference of -1.06.
2010s: 54.8% of horses improved, average position difference of -1.08.
What This Means for Punters and Trainers
These findings suggest that backing proven Cheltenham performers at Aintree could be a winning strategy. Rather than viewing Cheltenham as a detriment to Aintree performance, the data suggests that horses who run well at Cheltenham are more likely to thrive at Aintree.
For trainers and owners, this could influence race planning, reaffirming that strong Cheltenham runs are not necessarily a sign of fatigue but rather a predictor of continued success.
Cheltenham to Aintree form: 2021-2024
Having to disregard the Covid year of 2022 when we were all forced to watch a virtual running of the Grand National – won by Potters Corner if you recall – actual form between the Cheltenham Festival Aintree has continued to stack up.
There were three winners in 2021 at the Aintree meeting that were victorious at the previous Cheltenham.
Two of them, trained by Nicky Henderson, were Shiskhin and Chantry House, winners of the Maghull Novices’ Chase and Mildmay respectively, while Belfast Banter landed the Novices’ Hurdle having scored in the County at Cheltenham.
Two years later when racing returned to Aintree, there were another three runners that went back-to-back.
Corach Rambler was a memorable winner of the Grand National just a few weeks after landing the Ultima at Cheltenham, while another Henderson superstar in Constitution Hill bagged the Aintree Hurdle to add to his Champion Hurdle success that season.
Finally, Sire Du Berlais was a winner of the Liverpool Hurdle having landed the Stayers’ Hurdle at Prestbury Park.
Last year, there was just the one runner that added to his tally from Cheltenham heading to Aintree and that was the Gavin Cromwell-trained Inothewayurthinkin.
The winner of the Kim Muir went on to win the Mildmay in Liverpool – and then subsequently the Cheltenham Gold Cup earlier this month.
Cheltenham Festival 2025 Winners To Watch At Aintree
The break between the end of Cheltenham and the beginning of Aintree this year is very short, precisely 20 days, so Festival winners backing up in Liverpool will be more challenging than usual.
However, there are a couple of horses we can expect to make the trip to the Merseyside track.
Stumptown
Stumptown is one after his Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase success.
He is one of six entries in the Randox Grand National Handicap Chase for Gavin Cromwell and he won’t be penalised for his victory at Cheltenham.
The study confirms that two Cheltenham Festival winners went on to win the Aintree showpiece one month later, and both of those winners came from the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase.
Tiger Roll was the horse who achieved this feat on both occasions in 2018 and 2019, so there’s scope to suggest that Stumptown could go back-to-back in the biggest prize of them all.
Wonderwall
The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup also produces subsequent Aintree winners, so Wonderwall could be one to have a second look at.
On The Fringe did the Hunter Chase double in both 2015 and 2016. Last year, Its On The Line finished second at Cheltenham before going on to win the Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase at Aintree.
Heart Wood
Fact To File was an easy winner of the Ryanair Chase, though Heart Wood should be given plenty of credit for his run to finish second.
Henry de Bromhead has found out his correct distance having tried three miles a few times, notably at last season’s Aintree Grand National Festival in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase behind Inothewayurthinkin.
Five Cheltenham Festival winners went on to win the Melling Chase on their next start, notably Albertas Run in 2010, so if Heart Wood runs, he is a notable contender.
Jonbon
The Queen Mother Champion Chase has a great record in the Melling Chase as well.
Deep Sensation won both contests in 1993 for Josh Gifford, though it is Nicky Henderson who has a history of plotting his horses along this route.
Remittance Man (1992), Finian’s Rainbow (2012), and Sprinter Sacre (2013) all won the Champion Chase and Melling Chase in the same season.
With Jonbon on track to run in the Melling Chase, the stats are in his favour.
Lulumba
Finally, Nicky Henderson suggested that Lulamba could run again this season, and that could occur at Aintree in the Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle.
Although he didn’t win the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, he came a neck away from doing so and Triumph Hurdle winners have a great record when running in Liverpool.
Five winners, all since 2006, have done the juvenile hurdle double, and several placed horses in the Triumph Hurdle have gone on to place again at Aintree, notably Kargese last year and Pied Piper in 2022.
If Lulamba runs at the Aintree Grand National Festival, this study suggests that his chance is strong.
BETFRED
