There are defeats that make you rethink a horse, and there are defeats that leave you wondering whether you really learned very much at all.
Constitution River’s third place in the Juddmonte International at York probably falls into the second group.
Until that afternoon, Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old had put together one of the strongest records of any middle-distance horse in training. He had won five races in succession, landed the French Derby at Chantilly and then stepped into open-age company to win the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown.
York was meant to settle another argument. Instead, it created several new ones, and now Constitution River gets the chance to answer them in Saturday’s Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown, where the 1m2f Group 1 has produced a fascinating eight-runner field headed by three horses who filled the first three places at York.
Item won there. Almaqam finished second. Constitution River was third. This time, however, the bookmakers are still siding with the Ballydoyle colt.
Constitution River Remains the Favourite
Constitution River is trading at around 5/4 for Saturday’s Irish Champion Stakes, with Item close behind at roughly 5/2 and Almaqam around 4/1.
The market has not simply decided that York proved Item is the better horse. Instead, Constitution River is being given another chance to show that what happened at York was as much about the way the race developed as it was about ability.
Aidan O’Brien has been open about the fact that the International did not unfold as planned. Action, who had been expected to help provide a strong pace, missed the start, while Hawk Mountain ended up in a role that did not appear to suit him.
Constitution River also raced much more freely than ideal and found himself closer to the pace than connections would probably have wanted.
He was still able to finish third, around three and a half lengths behind Item, but he never looked as comfortable as he had at Sandown or Chantilly.
Why York May Have Been the Wrong Race to Judge Him On
One of the most interesting parts of the Irish Champion Stakes is that O’Brien has again sent more than one horse into battle.
Constitution River is joined by Lambourn and Hawk Mountain, giving Ballydoyle three of the eight runners.
Lambourn won both the Derby and Irish Derby in 2025 and has regularly raced prominently. He drops back to 1m2f here having been seen over longer distances, and it would be no surprise if he played a major role in making this a proper test from an early stage.
Hawk Mountain is another horse comfortable racing towards the front, although O’Brien suggested after York that being forced to make his own running there did not help him.
If Constitution River can settle behind a solid pace rather than getting involved too early, Ryan Moore may find himself in a much better position.
His Form Before York Was Hard to Fault
It is easy for one disappointing result to change how a horse is viewed, particularly when it comes in such a major race, but Constitution River’s wider record deserves more weight.
He has raced seven times and won five, and after finishing second on his debut at Newmarket in July 2025, he won at Galway and the Curragh as a juvenile before returning at Chester this spring with a seven-length success.
The French Derby followed, and that victory at Chantilly came over approximately ten furlongs on soft ground, with Hawk Mountain second and A Boy Named Susie fourth.
Then came Sandown and the Coral-Eclipse, which was Constitution River’s first Group 1 test against older horses, and he produced arguably his most convincing performance, beating A Boy Named Susie by three lengths. Hawk Mountain was third.
It took his winning run to five and appeared to confirm that the ten-furlong distance was exactly what he wanted.
Item Is Now a Very Real Problem
The obvious issue for Constitution River is that dismissing York as a one-off would also mean failing to give Item enough credit.
Andrew Balding’s colt did not stumble into victory. He had already won the Dante Stakes at York before the Derby, then returned to the Knavesmire in July and won the York Stakes. He went back again for the Juddmonte International and made it three wins from three at the course in 2026.
His International performance was especially strong because he had to wait for room before getting into full stride. Once clear, he finished quickly enough to catch Almaqam close to the line.
In other words, this is not a favourite facing an outsider who happened to beat him once. Item has earned his place near the head of the betting.
Almaqam Cannot Be Ignored Either
There is another reason this should not be reduced to Constitution River against Item.
Almaqam came within a head of winning the International, and Kieran Shoemark looked to have stolen a decisive advantage when he went for home at York, only for Item to catch him late.
The five-year-old had already won the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh earlier this season, proving he can travel to Ireland and produce his best form.
He is also an older horse carrying 9st 9lb, compared with the 9st 3lb carried by three-year-olds Constitution River, Item, A Boy Named Susie and Hawk Mountain.
At around 4/1, Almaqam sits just behind the two main market leaders, but it would be a mistake to treat him as a supporting act.
Aidan O’Brien and the Irish Champion Stakes
If there is one race in which punters have good reason to trust Aidan O’Brien, this is it.
He has trained the Irish Champion Stakes winner 13 times with a list that includes Giant’s Causeway, High Chaparral, Dylan Thomas, So You Think, Magical, St Mark’s Basilica, Luxembourg, and Auguste Rodin.
Economics interrupted the sequence for William Haggas in 2024 before Delacroix put O’Brien back on top in 2025. A win for Constitution River would therefore give O’Brien a 14th success in the race.
Ryan Moore, who rides the favourite, knows the Leopardstown contest particularly well too, having won it for O’Brien on Magical, St Mark’s Basilica, Luxembourg and Auguste Rodin.
Constitution River remains favourite because his French Derby and Eclipse wins showed exactly what he can do when everything falls into place.
Saturday will tell us whether York was a bad day at the office or the moment the balance of power among Europe’s ten-furlong horses started to change.
BETFRED
