The Irish Oaks takes centre stage at the Curragh today, but the complexion of the Classic changed on the morning of the race when Thundering On was withdrawn.
Joseph O’Brien’s filly had been expected to start favourite after her impressive success in the Oaks at Epsom. Her absence removes the highest-rated runner from the field and leaves a far more open contest than many had expected.
Earth Shot has moved to the head of the betting, but several of her rivals have form that gives them a serious chance. The remaining field includes progressive Royal Ascot performers, unbeaten fillies and runners who may improve on faster ground.
Earth Shot Heads the Betting
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Earth Shot is the new favourite after giving William Haggas and Wathnan Racing a notable victory in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot.
The daughter of Time Test caught Johanna Walsh close to the line that day, winning by a head on her first attempt over a mile and a half. It was only the fourth start of her career, so there should be more improvement to come.
Earth Shot had previously finished behind Inis Mor at Goodwood, but she looked a stronger and more complete filly at Ascot. Her stamina is also a major asset, as her dam won over a mile and six furlongs.
Haggas won the Irish Oaks with Sea Of Class in 2018 and now has a fine chance to take the prize again. However, Earth Shot is not a clear standout on form, and her narrow Ascot success shows how little separates the main contenders.
Johanna Walsh Has a Major Chance
Johanna Walsh may have been beaten by Earth Shot at Royal Ascot, but there are good reasons to think she can reverse that result.
The Joseph O’Brien-trained filly was having only her fourth start in the Ribblesdale and her first race outside maiden company. She made most of the running and was caught only in the final strides.
That performance marked her down as a high-class prospect. With further progress likely, she could be one of the runners who gains most from the absence of her stablemate Thundering On.
The question is whether she can control the race as easily at the Curragh. Aidan O’Brien has five runners and may use that strength to ensure the contest is run at a true pace.
Amelia Earhart Seeks to Bounce Back
Amelia Earhart looked like a leading Classic filly when she won the Cheshire Oaks in good style. She then started favourite for the Oaks at Epsom but failed to produce her best form on softer ground.
A return to a faster surface could help her at the Curragh. She had looked a strong galloper before her Epsom defeat and remains capable of much better.
She will still has to show that everything will fall into place under pressure. Even so, it would be risky to dismiss an Aidan O’Brien runner with proven form over the trip.
Inis Mor Brings Strong Form
Inis Mor improved greatly when moved up in distance after finishing down the field in the 1,000 Guineas.
She beat Earth Shot at Goodwood before finishing third in the Prix de Diane in France. That Group 1 placing gives her one of the strongest pieces of form among the remaining runners.
The extra distance should suit her on breeding, although she has sometimes raced keenly. A strong pace would help her settle and allow her to use her stamina in the closing stages.
With Thundering On out, Inis Mor looks one of the main runners who could challenge Earth Shot for favouritism.
Unbeaten Fillies Add Further Interest
Rebel Moon and Sparan Nua bring unbeaten records into the race, although both must improve to win at Group 1 level.
Rebel Moon has raced only twice. She followed her maiden success by winning the Group 3 Jannah Rose Stakes at Naas, with Cameo behind her in third. She cost 500,000gns as a yearling and has shaped as though the step up to a mile and a half will suit.
Sparan Nua is three from three after winning the Munster Oaks. Jim Bolger’s homebred filly has shown a sharp change of pace and a willing attitude, but her recent races were run at a steady tempo. This will be a much harder test if the Ballydoyle runners set a strong pace.
Both fillies remain open to progress, which makes them hard to rule out in a race now lacking an established star.
The Ballydoyle Outsiders
Aidan O’Brien is also represented by Beautify, Cameo, Composing and Sugar Island.
Cameo won the Lingfield Oaks Trial but has since been beaten at Epsom and Naas. Faster ground may help, although she needs to return to her best.
Composing ran better when fifth in the Ribblesdale and was not helped by interference at a key stage. She still has ground to make up on Earth Shot and Johanna Walsh.
Sugar Island finished third in the Epsom Oaks, but her strongest form has come on soft or heavy ground. Beautify also needs to improve, although this return to racing against three-year-old fillies may help her.
Irish Oaks Verdict
Thundering On’s withdrawal has removed the runner with the best rating and strongest Classic form. Earth Shot deserves to head the betting after her Royal Ascot win, but this is no longer a race that centres on one filly.
Johanna Walsh was beaten by only a head at Ascot and may be able to turn that form around. Inis Mor has already beaten Earth Shot and brings Group 1 form from France, while Amelia Earhart could return to her best on quicker ground.
The unbeaten Rebel Moon and Sparan Nua add even more doubt to the result. Earth Shot is the one to beat, but Johanna Walsh may offer the strongest challenge in a fascinating and now wide-open Irish Oaks.
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