There is something slightly unusual about the betting for Saturday’s Irish Champion Stakes because, on recent evidence, Item has a very strong case for being at the head of the market.
He has already beaten Constitution River, carries the higher current official rating and has won five of his six starts, yet Aidan O’Brien’s colt remains favourite.
Depending on which market you look at, the difference between the pair has at times been tiny. Exchange prices earlier in the week had Item and Constitution River almost side by side, while the main fixed-odds market has been closer to 11/8 Constitution River and 9/4 Item.
Either way, Andrew Balding’s colt is no longer being treated as a surprise package who happened to upset some established names at York.
He is now firmly among the best ten-furlong horses in Europe, and there is a very reasonable case for thinking he can win the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday.
York Was Not a Fluke
The obvious argument against Item is that plenty went wrong for Constitution River in the Juddmonte International, and there is some truth in that.
Aidan O’Brien was unhappy with how the race developed after the intended pacemaking plan failed, while Constitution River was keener than ideal and raced closer to the pace than connections would have wanted.
Hawk Mountain was also left doing a job that did not appear to suit him, so Ballydoyle clearly has reasons for believing the result could look different if the race is run another way at Leopardstown.
However, explaining why Constitution River may have underperformed is not the same as explaining away Item’s victory.
Item had problems of his own at York because Colin Keane had to wait for room before asking him for his full effort, while Almaqam had already kicked for home and established what looked like a race-winning advantage. Once the gap appeared, Item still had ground to make up and had to do it against a very good horse who was already in full stride.
He managed it, catching Almaqam close to the line to win by a head, while Constitution River finished more than three lengths further back in third.
Even with the favourite below his best, Item still had to catch and beat a proven Group 1 performer in Almaqam, which makes the York result much harder to dismiss as a one-off.
His York Record Is More Than a Fun Statistic
Item has become closely associated with York this season because three of his most important wins have come on the Knavesmire, beginning with the Dante Stakes in May.
That success immediately marked him down as a serious Derby contender, especially with Christmas Day among the horses behind him.
He then went to Epsom, but conditions turned against him and he could manage only ninth on soft ground. That remains the only defeat of his career.
Rather than treating Epsom as a major setback, Balding brought him back to York in July for the Group 2 York Stakes over the same mile-and-a-quarter distance he would later face in the International.
Item responded by beating Pride Of Arras by two and three-quarter lengths, confirming that the Dante had been no accident and that ten furlongs looked a very natural distance for him.
The Juddmonte International then took the story another step forward as Item returned to York for a third time in 2026 and won again, this time at Group 1 level against older opposition.
Three trips to York and three wins inevitably raise the question of whether Item simply loves that particular track, especially as his one defeat came away from it at Epsom.
It is a fair concern, but it is also worth remembering that he won his first two career starts before his Dante success, so York is certainly not the only place where he has been effective.
Leopardstown gives him a new test, but there is little in his overall record to suggest that he is dependent on one racecourse.
Colin Keane Is Another Major Plus
Item will again be ridden by Colin Keane, which is another strong point in his favour.
Keane now knows the horse well and got his timing right in the International despite having to wait for a clear passage. He is also very familiar with Leopardstown, something that could prove especially useful given Item is racing outside Britain for the first time.
The Leopardstown straight is not particularly long, so positioning before the home turn can make a big difference, and Keane will know when he needs to start moving and, just as importantly, when he cannot afford to get caught behind horses.
Item has drawn stall four, with Constitution River in stall three, which means the two main betting hopes will begin almost alongside each other. It adds another interesting tactical element because both jockeys will be well aware of where their biggest rival is from the moment the gates open.
Almaqam Could Help Item
Almaqam could also have an important part to play because the way Ed Walker’s five-year-old races may help produce the sort of contest that suits Item.
At York, Kieran Shoemark was positive enough to send Almaqam for home before Item had found clear running, and for a while it looked as though the move had won him the race.
If Lambourn or Hawk Mountain ensures a genuine gallop at Leopardstown and Almaqam again races close to that pace, Constitution River may also need to keep within striking distance rather than being ridden too patiently.
That could leave Item stalking the leading group before making his challenge late, which would be very similar to how the International developed.
The main difference is the shorter straight at Leopardstown, which means Keane cannot afford to leave himself with too much ground to recover. He will need to judge the race carefully, but Item has already shown that he possesses the finishing speed required when the pressure increases.
Why Item Can Win
The case for Item is actually quite straightforward when everything is put together. He has already beaten Constitution River and Almaqam, has won five of his six starts, is a Group 1 winner over ten furlongs and currently holds an official rating of 126.
He also receives 6lb from the older horses and will again be partnered by Colin Keane, who already knows exactly what sort of ride brings out the best in him.
Constitution River may well improve significantly on his York performance if Ballydoyle gets the pace right this time, and nobody should be surprised if the French Derby and Eclipse winner manages to reverse the form.
However, punters backing Item are not relying on something unusual happening. They are backing a horse who produced the best performance of the leading three contenders when they last met and who has spent most of the season finding answers whenever another question has been asked.
The bookmakers still just about prefer Constitution River, but Item has already shown once that the market can get this particular contest wrong.
BETFRED
