Andrew Balding has taken plenty of good colts to Epsom, but Item looks like the one with the most complete Derby profile he has ever sent there.
The Juddmonte‑owned son of Frankel is unbeaten in three starts and stamped himself as a leading Classic contender when winning the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York, a race long regarded as one of the key modern Derby trials.
That Dante win was not just visually taking; it was achieved at the expense of some very serious opposition.
Sent off 11/2 after wins in a Kempton maiden over 7f and a Bath novice over a mile as a juvenile, Item was making his seasonal reappearance, yet travelled like the best horse throughout and quickened right away when asked.
He powered nearly three lengths clear of Action, with Ballysax winner Christmas Day further back in third, both Aidan O’Brien colts with solid Group‑race credentials of their own. That is rock‑solid form for Epsom.
Bookmakers reacted accordingly. After York, he was cut to around 5/1–6/1 for the Betfred Derby, sitting on the second line of the market behind Aidan O’Brien’s Benvenuto Cellini, with many firms making him the leading British‑trained hope for Epsom.
A Derby That Matters For Balding
The Dante win dropped a tantalising narrative into the Derby build‑up. It is 55 years since Andrew’s father, the late Ian Balding, won the Derby with Mill Reef in 1971, and the current Kingsclere team have made no secret of how significant it would be to bring the trophy back to Park House Stables.
Andrew himself is still chasing a first Derby win, although he has gone close with big‑priced runners: Khalifa Sat finished second at 50/1 in 2020, and Hoo Ya Mal filled the same spot at 150/1 in 2022.
Unlike those two, Item does not qualify as a dark horse. As a three‑from‑three Frankel colt carrying the Juddmonte silks and coming off the premier 1m2½f trial, he is a fully credentialled contender, expected to be right near the top of the market.
For a yard that has already produced Classic winners such as 2003 Oaks heroine Casual Look and 2000 Guineas scorers Kameko and Chaldean, the Derby is the big domestic prize left on the to‑do list, and Item gives them a real chance to tick it off.
Pedigree and Running Style
From a punting perspective, the combination of Frankel and Juddmonte automatically commands respect. Frankel has already sired Derby and Classic winners, with Minnie Hauk and Soul Sister Epsom Oaks’ winners.
Item’s ability to settle behind a decent pace and then go through the gears suggests he should stay the Derby trip of 1m4f, especially given how strongly he hit the line over 10½f in the Dante.
The way he was able to sit off a solid gallop and then produce a sustained run also hints at a temperament suited to Epsom. Horses who pull early or need everything to fall perfectly rarely get away with it there.
Tactically, the Derby looks likely to feature a strong Ballydoyle presence again, headed by Benvenuto Cellini along with the likes of Christmas Day, Action and Pierre Bonnard.
If the Aidan O’Brien team ensure a genuine pace, Item’s Dante performance suggests he can travel in the first half of the field and then use a late burst of speed as they straighten for home.
With Colin Keane having already gelled with him in the Dante, continuity in the saddle is another plus, giving Balding a rider who knows exactly what he has underneath him at Epsom.
13 Rivals
Item will not be lacking for competition. Benvenuto Cellini, already a Group winner over further, brings strong Ballydoyle form and the usual Epsom experience of that camp to the table.
Maltese Cross, from William Haggas and successful in the Lingfield Derby Trial, arrives as the other big British‑trained contender with clear trial credentials at a mile and a half.
James J Braddock, coming off his Leopardstown Derby Trial win over Pierre Bonnard, is another colt whose profile ticks a lot of Derby boxes and who will almost certainly be popular with each‑way players.
What sets Item apart is that he has already dispatched two of Aidan O’Brien’s main supporting cast, Action and Christmas Day, with authority in a race that has produced multiple Derby winners in recent years.
That gives him some of the most trustworthy trial form on offer, especially if you favour races run on more orthodox tracks like York over some of the more idiosyncratic tests.
Could Be The Right Horse, At The Right Time
On bare numbers, you are dealing with a Frankel colt, unbeaten in three, coming off a two‑and‑three‑quarter‑length win in the strongest recognised Derby trial, having comfortably beaten two high‑profile Ballydoyle rivals in the process.
He is trained by a man whose family history is intertwined with the Derby and who has already shown he can ready Classic winners and big‑race performers around the world.
Nothing at Epsom is guaranteed, and the race has a habit of shredding reputations, but on what he has actually done on the track, Item has every right to be considered one of the most likely winners of this year’s Betfred Derby.
For Balding and Juddmonte, he is not just another nice colt; he is a very serious Classic horse arriving at exactly the right moment.
BETFRED
