Japan’s ongoing quest to conquer the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe remains one of modern racing’s most compelling global narratives.
Thirty years since their first bid, it still hasn’t been done.
For the 2025 renewal at Longchamp, Japan sends a formidable trio of Byzantine Dream, Croix Du Nord, and Alohi Alii, each armed with impressive form and the hopes of an entire racing nation.
This year, optimism is fuelled by trial successes and tactical adaptability, but history warns of the obstacles that await.
Japanese Racing’s Arc Ambition
No overseas nation has invested as much energy, imagination, and longing into the Arc as Japan.
Every year, powerful colts and fillies are sent across continents with the ambition of capturing the crown that still eludes them.
Near misses, most famously Orfevre in 2012, El Condor Pasa in 1999, and Deep Impact in 2006, are etched into racing history.
The collective will, from owners to breeders and fans, is immense, energising efforts to select the right horses, acclimatise preparation, and target key trials.
Will the 2025 Arc change all of that? Let’s take a closer look at this year’s three Japanese contenders to find out.
Byzantine Dream – Draw 15
Byzantine Dream arrives in Paris on the heels of a tough, tactical win in the Group 2 Prix Foy, a victory that sent his odds for the Arc plummeting from 50/1 to 12/1 in a matter of hours.
Trained by Kazumi Yoshida and ridden with precision by Oisin Murphy, he showed both tenacity and speed, besting Arc rivals including Sosie and Los Angeles over Longchamp’s good to soft ground.
A four-year-old son of top Japanese stallion Epiphaneia, Byzantine Dream has been campaigned internationally, with eye-catching runs in Japan, a strong effort in the King Abdulaziz stayer’s feature, and now triumph on French turf.
His style is that of a tactically adaptable runner, able to travel in cover and quicken off a strong pace, with bodyweight and athletic profile matching previous successful Japanese raiders.
Connections believe Byzantine Dream has left plenty in reserve, treating his Foy win as a prep.
Concerns linger over ground as he’s best on good to soft rather than heavy, but indications are that the forecast will suit.
Japan’s learning curve with the Arc is steep, and his training has emphasised local acclimatisation.
Murphy’s belief that the horse “was not at his best for the trial” buoys hopes for further improvement, though being drawn in stall 15 will not help his chances.
Croix Du Nord – Draw 17
Highly anticipated since his Grade 1 Japanese Derby (Tokyo Yushun) victory, Croix Du Nord justified the hype with a tenacious win in last month’s Prix du Prince d’Orange – Japan’s final Arc trial, over a rain-softened Longchamp.
Skipping the earlier French trial circuit, trainer Takashi Saito focused on European environmental adaptation, introducing Croix Du Nord to French turf and racing rhythm at the key moment.
Croix Du Nord’s versatile pedigree, by Kitasan Black out of the Epsom Oaks-placed Rising Cross, marks him as both a stayer and quickener.
His campaign has targeted stamina, with six wins from seven starts, marked by a JRA Award last season for Best Two-Year-Old Colt.
Form observers note his tendency to wander in the stretch, but his ability to find top gear late has rescued tight situations.
Kitamura, his regular rider, believes the colt has “room to improve” in Arc distance and ground, and crucially, he handled the soft turf as well as could be hoped.
Croix Du Nord’s market position was trimmed as low as 8/1, but has since drifted to at least 11/1 since being drawn in stall 17.
Despite this, his adaptability, strong racing temperament, and deep staying pedigree make him, for many, Japan’s leading hope in 2025.
Alohi Alii – Draw 4
The least proven but perhaps the most intriguing Japanese runner is Alohi Alii, who surged into Arc calculations after a stunning Group 2 win in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville in August.
Trained by Hiroyasu Tanaka and steered by Christophe Lemaire, the chestnut colt seized the race from the front, quickening three and a half lengths clear and boosting Timeform ratings and industry attention overnight.
Alohi Alii has raced only four times and was a distant eighth in the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), but on pedigree and visual impression, he possesses every chance to improve further over 2400m.
Tanaka believes “the extra ground won’t pose a problem,” and Lemaire lauded his “coolness under pressure and sharp acceleration.”
His trial form ties in directly with Prix Niel winner Cualificar, adding context to his European ability, and being drawn in stall 4 has certainly boosted his chances!
There are caveats: Alohi Alii is more lightly raced and lacks Croix Du Nord’s depth of experience.
However, his style—front-running, adaptable to tempo, and able to accelerate off a slow pace could match Arc conditions if he settles.
Market movers responded quickly, slashing his odds from 100/1 to 25/1 after Deauville.
The Challenge of Adapting to European Conditions
Japanese horses face an array of hurdles, including unfamiliar ground and climate, tactical European race patterns, new starting procedures, crowding, and the infamous Longchamp camber.
Years of close study have led Japanese teams to base horses in France weeks in advance, contesting local prep races, feeding and training on similar turf, and hiring world-class international jockeys for tactical advantage.
Ground is the primary factor. Japanese turf is generally firmer than Paris in autumn, with wet or sticky ground tripping up previous champions.
Draw and racing luck matter too; many Japanese runners have seen wide stalls hamper their preferred running style.
Adapting late and quickening in crowded stretches remains the acid test for Japanese hopes.
Japan’s Arc History: Near Misses, No Winners
Despite mighty efforts, Japan has never won the Arc. The closest, Orfevre, finished second in agonising fashion in 2012 after leading clear in the closing stages. El Condor Pasa was also narrowly denied in 1999.
The illusion of destiny lingers each October, and Japanese trainers have adapted, dialling in preparation, nutrition, and race selection to crack the code.
There is no Japanese-trained Arc winner yet, despite horse racing’s most passionate and sustained international campaign. Will that all change on Sunday?
Who Has the Best Chance?
Of the three Japanese contenders, form, temperament, and European adaptation suggested Croix Du Nord would be the most likely to capture Sunday’s prize, but has the draw scuppered his chances?
His Derby win, French trial triumph, proven stamina, and market confidence set a high bar, even if Byzantine Dream’s Prix Foy was tactically eye-catching and Alohi Alii’s visual impression at Deauville was sparkling.
Croix Du Nord’s combination of international experience, tactical pace, and adaptability to ground makes him the strongest statistical fit for the Arc winner’s profile.
Byzantine Dream rates a serious threat, and his acceleration and toughness are assets, especially if the ground stays good-to-soft.
Alohi Alii, while still an improving wild card, may lack the depth of Group 1 experience for outright victory but could still outstrip expectations.
Roll On Sunday
Japan’s Arc battle goes beyond racing; it is a drama about mastery, adaptation, ambition, and heartbreak.
With three live Japanese contenders for 2025, hopes are high that Longchamp’s autumn turf might finally yield the result Tokyo, Kyoto, and Sapporo have so long awaited.
Whether Croix Du Nord, Byzantine Dream, or Alohi Alii breaks the curse, victory would be an epoch-making moment, uniting continents in celebration and rewriting the story of international flat racing.
BETFRED
