The Grand National, one of the most prestigious and challenging steeplechases in the world, will once again captivate racing enthusiasts in 2025.
As the anticipation builds, all eyes are on I Am Maximus, the reigning champion who stormed to victory in 2024. But can lightning strike twice for Willie Mullins’ talented gelding?
Winning back-to-back Grand Nationals is a feat that has eluded all but the most exceptional horses in the race’s history. The challenge becomes even more daunting when a returning champion is assigned top weight, as is the case for I Am Maximus in 2025.
He is hoping to match stablemate Galopin Des Champs’s back-to-back Cheltenham success, but Gold Cup betting, and indeed winning the race, comes with its own set of considerations, influenced by class, stamina, and plenty of race-day unpredictability.
The handicapper has handed the nine-year-old 11st 12lbs, a significant increase from the 11st 4lbs he carried to victory last year.
This additional burden reflects I Am Maximus’s impressive performance in 2024, but it also presents a formidable obstacle to his chances of repeating that success.
The last horse to win consecutive Grand Nationals was Tiger Roll in 2018 and 2019, a remarkable achievement that hadn’t been seen since Red Rum’s legendary victories in 1973 and 1974. Notably, Red Rum’s second victory came while carrying the maximum weight of 12st, a testament to his extraordinary ability.
A Formidable Task
To put I Am Maximus’s task into perspective, let’s look at the statistics of Grand National winners over the past 15 years.
The average weight carried by winners during this period is approximately 10st 8lbs, significantly less than what I Am Maximus will have to shoulder in 2025. The average age of winners is around 9 years old, which aligns with I Am Maximus’s current age.
As for starting odds, the average comes in at about 27/1, although this figure is skewed by a few long-shot winners.
Given these statistics, I Am Maximus faces an uphill battle. The extra weight he’ll carry compared to the average winner is substantial, potentially impacting his stamina over the grueling 4-mile, 2½-furlong course.
However, his age is ideal, and his current odds of 12/1 suggest that bookmakers and punters alike still have faith in his abilities.
Better Chance For McManus Than I Am Maximus
Putting I Am Maximus’s chances aside, if there is a back-to-back winner to be found in this year’s Grand National, it is more likely to be for super-owner JP McManus.
He dominated the entries and has a really strong chance of winning the Grand National again in 2025, with several top contenders among his entries.
Leading Contenders
Inothewayurthinkin currently leads the betting as the ante-post favourite. This seven-year-old, trained by Gavin Cromwell, impressed at last year’s Aintree festival by winning the Mildmay Novices’ Chase. He’s been allocated 11st 5lbs for the Grand National.
Iroko, trained by Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero, is another strong contender at is currently fourth in the betting markets. He finished second to Inothewayurthinkin in last year’s Mildmay Novices’ Chase and has been given a favourable weight of 10st 11lbs.
Other Notable Entries
McManus has several other entries with decent chances:
Meetingofthewaters (10st 7lbs) – Highlighted by trainer Willie Mullins as having potential
Perceval Legallois (10st 12lbs) – Goes into this race with back-to-back wins at Leopardstown this season
Capodanno (11st 2lb) – Another Willie Mullins contender who ran in the Grand National last year, finishing in 16th place.
Chantry House (10st 13lbs) – Former Marsh Noveices Chase winner at Cheltenham, Chantry House represents one of Nicky Henderson’s best shots at finally winning a Grand National.
Limerick Lace (10st 10lbs) – Mare’s Chase winner at Cheltenham last season, who then went on to finish in 10th place in the Grand National. Her current odds defy her chances and experience.
Analysis
JP McManus has already won the Grand National three times:
- 2024 – I Am Maximus
- 2021 – Minella Times
- 2010 – Don’t Push It
With eight runners, seven of which are already guaranteed a spot in the top 34, McManus horses account for 20% of the current line-up, giving him every chance of another win.
His horses occupy five of the top ten spots in the betting markets, demonstrating the quality of his contenders.
The variety in his entries, from defending champion I Am Maximus to promising younger horses like Inothewayurthinkin and Iroko, gives McManus multiple paths to success.
His proven track record in the race, combined with the strength and depth of his 2025 entries, makes JP McManus a formidable force in the upcoming Grand National.
However, the challenge of winning with top weight for I Am Maximus and the unpredictable nature of the Grand National mean that success is far from guaranteed.
Nonetheless, McManus appears to have an excellent chance of adding to his impressive Grand National record in 2025.
Mixed Fortune For Returning Winners
It’s worth noting that returning Grand National winners have had mixed fortunes in recent years. Many Clouds, the 2015 winner, finished 16th when he returned in 2016 carrying 11st 10lbs.
Tiger Roll, after his back-to-back victories, was withdrawn from the 2020 race due to his allocated weight of 11st 10lbs.
While I Am Maximus certainly has a chance to make history, several other contenders could potentially outshine him on the day. Inothewayurthinkin, trained by Gavin Cromwell, has shown impressive form recently, winning two of his last five races. His relatively light weight of 11st 5lbs could give him an advantage over I Am Maximus.
Another strong contender is Intense Raffles. This Irish Grand National winner has youth on his side at just seven years old and will carry 10st 10lbs, which could prove crucial over the testing Aintree fences.
Nick Rockett, one of Willie Mullins’ other entries, is also attracting attention. Fresh from his victory in the Thyestes Chase, he’s been assigned 11st 8lbs and is currently fifth in the betting. His recent form and Mullins’s expertise make him a serious threat to his stablemate’s crown.
The 2025 Grand National field is further complicated by the presence of several horses that are also targeting the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. Royale Pagaille, Hewick, and L’Homme Presse are all entered for both prestigious races. Their performances at Cheltenham could significantly impact their Grand National prospects and the overall shape of the field.
A Look Ahead
As we approach the 2025 Grand National, the stage is set for a fascinating contest. I Am Maximus faces a stern test as he attempts to add his name alongside the likes of Tiger Roll and Red Rum, but the weight he’s been assigned reflects not just his quality but also a significant hurdle to overcome.
While both JP McManus and I Am Maximus have a chance at achieving back-to-back Grand National wins, it appears that JP McManus has the better odds of repeating his success in 2025.
McManus has a formidable array of entries, with several horses occupying the top spots in the betting markets. His strongest contender, Inothewayurthinkin, is currently the favourite, while I Am Maximus sits as the second favourite.
The challenge for I Am Maximus is significant, as he must carry top weight, which makes his task of becoming the first back-to-back winner since Tiger Roll in 2018-2019 considerably more difficult.
In contrast, McManus’s diverse stable of talented runners, including Inothewayurthinkin, Iroko, and Meetingofthewaters, gives him multiple paths to victory.
While I Am Maximus’s individual feat would be historic, JP McManus’s overall chances of celebrating in the winner’s enclosure again seem more promising given the strength and depth of his entries.
