The September Stakes at Kempton Park is a key late-season highlight, and for 2025, the race features a select field of six.
The story this year is dominated by the short-priced favourite, Kalpana, representing Juddmonte and trainer Andrew Balding.
Hovering at around 1/2 ON in betting markets, she’s drawn attention not just for her talent, but for the sheer gulf between her and the rest on the odds board.
Why exactly are her odds so short, and do any challengers have a realistic chance of causing an upset?
Kalpana – The Dominant Filly
Kalpana’s credentials are formidable. The four-year-old filly made history in 2024 with victories in the September Stakes and the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, stamping her authority as the next top-level Juddmonte runner.
This season, although she’s yet to get her head in front, Kalpana has placed in three consecutive Group 1 races: third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, second in the Pretty Polly, and a battling second in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
Trainer Andrew Balding remarked that Kempton is deliberately chosen as a prep for the Arc, with Kalpana already a previous winner of this Group 3 over 12 furlongs.
“She won the race last year, so we know that the track and trip suits her well…hopefully this will be a stepping stone towards Longchamp in October,” explained Balding.
Her consistent placement at Group 1 level, the drop back to less competitive company, and her proven liking for Kempton’s all-weather surface, all justify the odds-on price.
Simply put, Kalpana has a class edge, race fitness, and is being campaigned astutely for bigger targets.
Giavellotto – Stamina and Class
Second in the market at around 3/1 is Giavellotto, the six-year-old trained by Marco Botti and ridden by Oisin Murphy.
Giavellotto is best known for his staying prowess, as the winner of the Hong Kong Vase and with notable placed efforts in the Yorkshire Cup and Goodwood.
He consistently lines up against elite stayers and has primarily been running at 1m4f this season.
The question mark is whether the trip on the Kempton surface plays to his strengths, but his proven Group-level form marks him as the chief threat if Kalpana underperforms.
Tasmania – Consistent Campaigner
Tasmania, trained by Sir Mark Prescott, lines up at 14/1. With three wins on his record and placed efforts in Listed company, he’s a solid performer but typically falls short against top-level opposition.
Tasmania usually races prominently and prefers a true test of stamina. A repeat of his best form could earn a minor place, but he’s likely up against it given the quality above him.
Meydaan – Hoping To Outrun Odds
Meydaan, a four-year-old for Simon & Ed Crisford at 16/1, is still unexposed with limited runs at pattern level.
He has shown ability on the all-weather but faces his toughest task yet. Meydaan might progress into a smart handicapper or Listed type, but it would take a significant career-best for him to seriously threaten the principals here.
Connections will hope he can outrun his odds by finding improvement for a smaller field and controlled pace.
Candleford – Reliable but Exposed
Veteran seven-year-old Candleford for William Haggas comes in at 25/1.
Candleford is reliable in handicaps, with multiple wins over 12 furlongs on turf and all-weather.
He is consistent and may pick up a minor place if the pace collapses or rivals underperform.
However, he looks exposed on ratings and is unlikely to worry the favourite unless enjoying a career resurgence.
Satavia – Outsider with Everything to Prove
Satavia, the three-year-old filly trained by Ralph Beckett, is the race’s long shot at around 200/1.
Drawn wide, she has found life tough even in handicaps and would have to find spectacular improvement to contend here.
She might be the pacemaker or simply gaining experience and a win or place would constitute a major surprise.
Realistically, she likely needs major misfortune among the others for that to happen.
Why Kalpana’s Odds Stand Out
Kalpana’s very short price reflects several factors:
- She’s the only proven Group 1 performer in the race
- Last year’s September Stakes win shows she loves Kempton’s surface
- Her campaign is laser-focused on peak fitness for the Arc
- Her Group 1 placings are far superior to anything her rivals have achieved
Previous runners prepping for the Arc in the September Stakes have frequently justified favouritism in this spot, and Kalpana is no different.
Can Anyone Upset Her?
With a small field, “>tactics may play a part. Giavellotto could challenge if Kalpana underperforms or faces traffic issues.
Tasmania and Candleford might grind out a place, but their ratings and record suggest it’s more likely Kalpana simply proves too good.
Small fields often mean a muddling pace so if Kalpana takes up the running and dictates terms, it’s hard to see her being caught.
If she runs below her usual form, Giavellotto is the one most likely to exploit the opportunity.
All signs point to Kalpana stamping her class on the September Stakes once again, setting her firmly on course for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
The race serves as both a valuable Group 3 victory and a vital stepping stone, with Giavellotto and Tasmania most likely to chase her home.
For racing fans, this year’s contest showcases a high-class filly in full flight and a supporting cast hoping to cause a surprise in a select but high-quality field.
BETFRED
