There is a certain type of Grand National runner that the market prices at 33/1 and the public largely ignores, and then turns up on the day and outruns his odds. Lecky Watson may or may not be that horse.
His recent form gives you very little reason to think he will be, and there is no point dressing that up.
But he is trained by Willie Mullins, he won a Grade 1 at Cheltenham less than a year ago at 20/1, and the Grand National has a long history of making people feel foolish for writing off a horse too quickly.
So, before you skip straight past him, it is worth spending a few minutes to understand what you are actually getting for your 33/1.
What He Has Done
Lecky Watson is an eight-year-old owned by the Slaneyville Syndicate, and his career tells the story of a horse that has shown genuine ability on his day without ever quite nailing it consistently.
His early career showed steady progression through hurdles and novice chases, but it was at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival that he made people sit up and take notice.
At the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, sent off at 20/1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, he produced a shock win in the Grade 1 contest, coming home in front of Stellar Story and Better Days Ahead after the odds-on favourite Ballyburn disappointed.
Winning a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival at 20/1 is not something any horse does by accident.
The form may have been muddied by the favourite’s below-par effort, but the bare fact remains that Lecky Watson beat a quality field at the biggest jumping meeting of the year.
He followed that up with a fall at Punchestown in April, and this season has not gone to plan. He was pulled up at Leopardstown in February and finished eighth of nine at Fairyhouse a few weeks later.
Mullins himself has acknowledged the horse has not fired this year, telling Racing TV: “He’s a Grade One winner and hasn’t sparked this year. His jumping can be untidy but I think he’s got a great weight for an unexposed Grade One winner and you could not rule him out.”
That is not a rousing endorsement, but it is an honest one, and coming from a trainer who has won the last two Grand Nationals, it carries more weight than the same words would from almost anyone else.
Does He Fit The Winner’s Profile?
Age: Eight years old, which sits right in the sweet spot of 8-10 that has produced the majority of recent National winners. Ticks the box.
Weight: Carrying 11st 2lb, which falls comfortably within the 10st 10lb to 11st 6lb range that has produced 18 of the last 20 winners. One of his strongest credentials on paper. Ticks the box.
Chase wins: Three wins from eight starts over fences. The typical winner profile calls for 4-6 chase wins, so he falls slightly short on this measure.
Recent form: Pulled up last time out at Leopardstown, and eighth the run before that.
The trends show that 21 of the last 33 winners finished in the top four in their most recent race. This is the most significant concern with Lecky Watson, and there is no point hiding from it.
National experience: None, which actually aligns with the historical data. Only 7 of the last 33 Grand National winners had previously run in the race!
Odds: At 33/1 he sits well outside the 8/1-20/1 bracket that produces 60% of winners. Longer-priced winners do happen, but they are the exception.
The Honest Verdict
Lecky Watson is 33/1 for very understandable reasons. His recent form has been poor, his jumping has been described as untidy even by his own trainer, and the Grand National is not a race that tends to forgive horses who arrive out of form.
On the stats, he fails the recent form test, and his chase wins fall short of the typical winner profile.
What keeps him from being dismissed entirely is the combination of a weight that the handicapper has set fairly, a Cheltenham Grade 1 on his record that shows he is capable of better, and a trainer who has the rare ability to produce a horse for a specific day when everything else has suggested the season has passed him by.
At 33/1, the each-way return on even a placed finish is significant. The Grand National is the one race in the calendar where 33/1 shots do occasionally land in the first four (some bookmaker are paying out to 5th and 6th place), and where a horse that ticks a few of the right boxes, the right age, a fair weight, and an Irish handler who dominates the sport, can never be completely written off.
If you like a long-odds flutter on the day, there are worse ways to spend a small stake.
BETFRED
