Anybody who has been following the 2024 Grand National Odds will know that Corach Rambler is the favourite.

His odds of 6/1 are some of the shortest any horse will have ever gone off in the race if they stay that way on race day, that is!

And with last year’s Irish Grand National winner, I Am Maximus, behind him on 8/1 and last year’s runner-up, Vanillier, on 9/1, there really isn’t a lot of value at the top end of the market.

However, rarely do Grand National winners come home on such short odds. In fact, only five favourites have won the race in the last 20 years.

Recent Long Shots

In the last 10 Grand Nationals alone, we have had two favourites and one 66/1 shot win the race. Even Noble Yeats went off at 50/1 though you could have backed him earlier in the day at 66/1!

In total, five of the last 10 winners have gone off at starting odds of 25/1 or more. Taking that into account and looking at Betfred’s odds for the race today, the vast majority of the 2024 Grand National Runners are priced at 25/1 or more.

And with many bookmakers paying out each-way bets to five or six places. That means if your horse doesn’t win but finishes in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th place, you could get money back if you bet each-way.

Statistically, a few of the higher-priced horses will make it into the top five of the race. So which of them has the potential to do well on Saturday?

2024 Grand National Long Shots

I’ve gone through all of the runners, taking into account their odds, age, seasonal runs, weight, and form over the longer distances.

So with all of that, we are left with four National runners, on bigger prices, who could run a good race on Saturday:

  • Foxy Jacks – 66/1
  • Roi Mage – 50/1
  • Ain’t That A Shame – 66/1
  • Chambard – 100/1

Can any of them defy their odds and throw up a surprise? They may not be favourites but anything can happen in the Grand National!

 

Foxy Jacks FOXY JACKS

Nobody seems to be talking about Foxy Jacks despite the fact that his trainer, Mouse Morris, has form in the Grand National, winning with Rule The World in 2016.

On the surface his form is a bit of a hodge podge of handicap chases and cross country runs with the odd hurdle thrown in for good measure.

But there’s method in the madness and sending Foxy Jacks to the Pertemps at Leopardstown may just be the ideal prep for a race as big as the Grand National.

A win in the Glenfarclas at Cheltenham in December over 3m5½f demonstrates plenty of stamina and while his weight of 11-04 is not ideal, it’s not insurmountable either.

A definite consideration for an each-way place.

 

Roi Mage Runner Silk ROI MAGE

He might be one of the oldest horses in the race, but at 12 years old, Roi Mage has still got plenty left in the tank.

He was 7th in last year’s race, so we know he can navigate the tricky fences and go the distance.

This season, he started with a cross-country steeple chase win in France, on heavy ground before returning to the UK.

His next run at Tramore is better left forgotten, but a prep race at Down Royal in March may have stretched his legs enough to give him a boost at Aintree.

He is capable of placing and is one of the few long shots with a proven history in this race.

 

Aint That a Shame - Grand National 2024 AIN’T THAT A SHAME

Was owned by Robcour up until March 26th so new owner David Maxwell will be hoping that he’s bought a hidden gem in Ain’t That A Shame.

Similar to Roi Mage, he too ran and finished last year’s Grand National, albeit the last one home in 17th place.

That aside, what it demonstrates is that he can and has completed the race, which is more than most of this year’s runners can claim.

And, like last year, he has had three seasonal runs prior to heading to Aintree, the last of which, the Goffs Theyestes, he won on heavy ground.

Can he make it into the money in 2024? It’s going to be difficult, but the ground will be the undoing of plenty of runners, so if he can hang in there, he has every chance of placing.

 

Chambard CHAMBARD

Venetia Williams is no stranger to training a 100/1 winner – Mon Mome in 2009, anyone?

The bigger question, though, is, can she do it again with Chambard in 2024?

It’s easy to dismiss the long shots, especially when they are 12 years old, less so when they’ve won the Becher Chase on heavy ground as recently as December.

Wasn’t as successful in the Welsh National but did make a mistake in that race. And since then has had two reasonably decent runs and has proven stamina.

More importantly, four of his five races this season have been on heavy ground, and it hasn’t fazed him.

His experience and ability to slog it out in the mud could prove to be very useful on Saturday, and at 100/1, he could be worth a small each punt.

 

What Is A Long Shot?

Technically, a ‘long shot’ refers to something or someone that has a very low probability of succeeding or winning, usually in a competition or event.

It can be used to describe a team or player in a sports match, a contestant in a competition, or an investment with a high risk of failure but a potentially high payoff.

In general, a long shot is an outcome that is considered unlikely but not impossible. And if there’s one event that has a habit of throwing up the fairytale stories for the long shots, it is the Grand National.

Conclusion

Of course, this is the Grand National 2024, so you often throw statistics out the window and just pick one because you like the name!

Or you can look at how some of them have done over the Grand National fences in the past.

Corach Rambler, Vanillier, Noble Yeats, and Roi Mage all finished in the top ten last year. Ain’t That A Shame is the only other runner, entered again, who also finished the 2023 race.

Though some are carrying much heavier weights and others have lower odds this time around, Roi Mage and Ain’t That A Shame still have some value even if they aren’t the bookie’s favourites.

Betfred

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