Fair Grounds hosts one of the most important stops on the Road to the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, with the Louisiana Derby 2026, over 1m1½f, scheduled off at 10:42pm for UK viewers.
This Grade 2 is worth a guaranteed £740,741, with £444,445 to the winner – serious money and, more importantly, a golden ticket straight into the Kentucky Derby via 100 qualifying points to the winner.
For British and Irish punters, it is a rare late‑night chance to watch the New Orleans form lines settle and to weigh up which three‑year‑olds are genuinely ready for the first Saturday in May.
The nine‑runner line‑up mixes hardened Derby‑trail regulars with lightly raced, high‑upside types representing some of the most powerful barns in the game.
A few already have enough points to sleep soundly, others absolutely do not, and how that shapes tactics over this extended nine‑furlong trip could be as decisive as raw ability.
Add in the draw on Fair Grounds’ dirt where low‑to‑middle stalls have traditionally been favoured around the two turns, and you have a race where position into the first bend really matters.
Golden Tempo and Chip Honcho: The Established Yardsticks
Golden Tempo (stall 5) comes in as the locally proven, progressive colt and an obvious shortlist horse. He is 1‑from‑2 at Fair Grounds, having stormed from last to first in a 10‑runner maiden.
With 35 Derby points already banked, he does not need to empty the tank, but his course experience and tactical speed should put him in the right place turning for home.
Chip Honcho (stall 3) is the other obvious benchmark, and is the race favourite with most bookmakers, having danced every dance on this circuit.
The Connect colt has run in Louisiana Derby 2026 preps at the track, winning the Gun Runner, finishing fourth in the Lecomte and then a close second in the Risen Star – a sequence that has earned him 39 points.
In many seasons that total alone would be enough for a Kentucky Derby berth, so a top‑five finish here should lock things up, but trainer Steven Asmussen has won this race five times, and it would be no surprise if he asked for a bit more on Saturday.
With Luis Saez booked and an ideal low draw, he looks a rock‑solid win contender.
Louisiana Derby 2026 Odds
| Stall No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chip Honcho | Luis Saez | Steven M Asmussen | 5/2 |
| 9 | Emerging Market | Flavien Prat | Chad C Brown | 3/1 |
| 5 | Golden Tempo | Jose L Ortiz | Cherie Devaux | 7/2 |
| 7 | Blacksmith | Florent Geroux | Bob Baffert | 8/1 |
| 8 | Easterly | Edgard J Zayas | Brad H Cox | 8/1 |
| 4 | Universe | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr | Kenneth G Mcpeek | 12/1 |
| 1 | Pavlovian | Edwin A Maldonado | Doug F O’Neill | 16/1 |
| 2 | Autobahn | Marcelino Pedroza Jr | Brad H Cox | 16/1 |
| 6 | Spirit of Royal | Francisco Arrieta | Dallas Stewart | 33/1 |
Pavlovian and Universe: The Seasoned Travellers
Pavlovian (stall 1) arrives off a breakthrough win on the Derby trail in the Sunland Derby, which earned him 20 qualifying points and a place in this deeper spot.
A California‑bred son of Pavel, he cut his teeth against state‑breds at Santa Anita and Del Mar, including a runner‑up effort in the Best Pal (G3) behind Desert Gate.
Trainer Doug O’Neill knows exactly what is required, having sent out Hot Rod Charlie to win this race in 2021 before a big run at Churchill Downs.
From the inside gate, Pavlovian will need a clean start, but if he can hold a spot behind the pace, his battle‑hardened profile could play well in the stretch.
Universe (stall 4) has been living on the Derby trail for a while, with efforts in the Champagne Stakes (G1), Street Sense Stakes (G3), Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), and Risen Star Stakes already on his CV.
He has 23 points in the bank, so a top‑four finish here would probably be enough to make Louisville. His form reads like a colt who repeatedly runs into one or two better, which makes him the classic type for exactas and tris rather than a win bet.
The Lightly Raced Upside: Easterly and Emerging Market
Brad Cox brings two runners, and Easterly (stall 8) might be the more interesting of them despite his inexperience.
Drawn wide in 8 and stepping up into much deeper waters, he will need jockey Edgard Zayas to work out a trip, but Cox won this race in 2020 and 2024 and has a good feel for what is required.
Emerging Market (stall 9), from Chad Brown, is another relative unknown quantity, but plenty of people will latch onto him.
He made a winning debut at Tampa Bay Downs in February and keeps Flavien Prat for this big step up in class. Chad Brown is not famous for dirt Derby horses, yet when he brings one with this sort of number and profile, the market tends to pay attention.
Louisiana Derby 2026 Longshots
Autobahn (stall 2) did win well at Gulfstream when finally getting off the mark, but that form does not scream top‑tier Derby prep winner, and his earlier race has not aged brilliantly.
In a deeper contest like this, he looks one to oppose for win purposes, even allowing for Brad Cox’s record in the race.
Spirit of Royal (stall 6) faces another stiff task here despite Dallas Stewart’s reputation for upsetting the odds in big races.
Blacksmith (stall 7) comes in off a comfortable Santa Anita win and a runner‑up finish in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), but Baffert rarely targets this race and has not won it since 2004, which is enough to make him a tricky proposition at single‑figure odds from a wide draw.
Kentucky Derby Points
The Louisiana Derby is run over 1m1½f (1m1f110y) on dirt and is restricted to three‑year‑olds.
Crucially, it comes on the first weekend of the “100‑point preps”, with Kentucky Derby points allocated 100‑50‑25‑15‑10 to the first five home.
Historically, 40–50 points is usually enough to book a place at Churchill, so a win or second here more or less sorts your Louisville travel plans.
That creates a split: Chip Honcho, Golden Tempo, Universe, and Pavlovian have already collected points and do not strictly need to win, whereas the likes of Easterly and Emerging Market probably have to land a blow now or miss the party.
The Importance of the Draw
Fair Grounds’ 1m1½f start gives a reasonably long run to the first turn, but low‑to‑middle stalls still tend to enjoy an edge because they can secure position without burning as much fuel.
Here, Chip Honcho breaks from stall 3, Universe from 4, and Golden Tempo from 5, all ideally berthed to sit in the first half of the pack. Pavlovian in 1 could either enjoy a dream rail trip or find himself boxed in if he does not break cleanly.
In recent years, Louisiana Derby winners have often brought solid local form from the earlier preps – think Gun Runner and Epicenter – and have tended to stay on strongly rather than blaze away from the front.
That suits grinders with proven two‑turn stamina more than pure speed types stretching out.
Another recurring theme is trainer strength: Steve Asmussen has won the race five times, Brad Cox has taken two of the last six, and big‑name barns tend to dominate the frame.
The Betting Angle
This looks a proper Louisiana Derby, blending home‑track know‑how with the usual invasion from California, Florida and Kentucky.
Golden Tempo appeals as the most straightforward option: proven at Fair Grounds, tactically versatile, and with an in‑form Jose Ortiz plus added focus from the fitting of blinkers.
Chip Honcho rates the solid Plan B, likely to get a perfect trip from stall 3 and more than capable of finally grabbing his big local prize.
For those wanting a little more adventure, Emerging Market offers upside at a similar price, while Universe and Pavlovian look the right types to keep onside for place bets and exotics.
However you play it, Saturday night in New Orleans is set to answer a few big questions on the road to Churchill Downs – and possibly ask one or two new ones about horses who suddenly look a lot more interesting for early May.
BETFRED
