The Melbourne Cup is called ‘the race that stops a nation’; it’s not just a sporting event, but a cultural phenomenon in Australia. For the bookies, it’s one of the busiest days of the year.
It’s always difficult to predict the winner of any given race with great certainty, and the Melbourne Cup is no exception to that rule. It’s part of the reason why sports fans love to bet on the horses.
In this guide, we’ll give you an overview of the current odds, tips to help you prepare before the big race, and any long-odds horses that may be worth considering.
Making Value Bets
The event takes the most bets for horse racing in Australia, which means bookies make sure their odds are on point. It’s not always easy to get value, but it’s possible.
The main thing is keeping up with the latest odds at Flemington, and combined with training performance and injury reports before the race.
Even more than any other horse race, the lead-up to the Melbourne Cup can be “make or break” for a horse.
Injuries can play a big part in racing performance, too. There are reports that Without a Fight is questionable for the race due to a tendon problem.
Even if he is declared fit for the race, it is unlikely he will get the right amount of training before the event.
For the Melbourne Cup, it’s ideal for the horse to do 10,000m plus of racing before the event. This can usually be tracked on various racing websites. It pays to do your research on this, as in the last 15 years, 12 of the winners have had more than 10,000m logged before racing.
Vauban and Absurde’s trainers are making a special effort to ensure plenty of training is being done prior to the Melbourne Cup, which is worth keeping in mind.
Generally, horses that are either 4 or 5 years old will do well at the Melbourne Cup. Or rather, the winners are usually within this tight age bracket. Further, winning horses tend to be between 53-56 kg.
The sex of the horse is also important. Makybe Diva is one of the most famous horses to race and win at the Melbourne Cup, partly precisely because her results are improbable; mares have only won the Cup 16 times in total.
What Does ‘Favourite’ Mean in 2024?
When you look at all Melbourne Cup results, it would be reasonable to conclude that betting on the favourite is a pretty good shout.
Out of 163 total races, 34 starting favourites have crossed the finish first. That equates to a win rate of nearly 21%.
With some bookies, you can get this year’s favourite, Jan Brueghel, at 5/1. You’d be tempted to think that putting your money on the top horse every year is a solid bet, at least when you’re looking at it from a probability perspective.
However, in recent years, the favourites have been trending down. For the past two decades, only three have won.
The last decade? None. Last year, the favourite ended a disappointing 14th in the race.
Keep this in mind, when doing a statistical analysis of the entire Melbourne Cup. Racing has changed loads in the last two decades, which requires a different betting approach.
Conversely, it’s tempting to place a bet on a 100/1 horse, but do this as close to the race as possible.
Many of the horses currently listed at long odds will not even participate, as the final roster will not be announced until closer to the race.
And even if they do, a Prince of Penzance storyline is, well, a 1 in 100 shot.
Parting Words
If you’re a horse racing veteran, you’ll know that these predictions come with a disclaimer: never bet more than you can afford to lose from your bankroll.
There’s no such thing as a ‘dead cert’, and any so-called insider information tends to eventually reflect in the odds pretty soon after it’s out there.
For novices, use these tips to build your internal database on horse racing. Don’t copy + paste strategies, but craft your own over time.
Experience is everything, especially with horses. If you’re betting on horses with longer odds, there’s a reason. Do a cost/benefit analysis when placing a bet.
And finally, enjoy the race. The Melbourne Cup is a fantastic event with a lot of history. Your bets should add to the excitement and anticipation, not the opposite.
