Three weeks ago, Paul Townend was sitting aboard Gaelic Warrior at the top of Cheltenham’s famous hill, eight lengths clear of the field, having just won a record fifth Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Earlier that same week he had won the Champion Hurdle on Lossiemouth and the Champion Chase on Il Etait Temps. The first jockey in history to complete the Cheltenham Festival’s Triple Crown in a single week. Records broken, history made, standing ovation from the crowd.
And now he has a different problem entirely.
The Chosen One
Somewhere between now and April 11, Paul Townend has to choose between two horses he knows exceptionally well, both trained by Willie Mullins, both genuine contenders to win the Grand National.
One of them gave him one of the greatest days of his career. The other is five from six with him in the saddle and won his most recent start in February. The prize for getting it right is £500,000. The price for getting it wrong is watching someone else potentially win the National on the horse you left behind.
“In these big races, there is always a decision to be made,” Townend told Betway this week. “I Am Maximus gave me one of my greatest days in the saddle here two years ago, but there wouldn’t be much between him and Grangeclare West on the face of it, so you really have to try and take sentiment out of it.”
What Each Horse Brings to the Table
I Am Maximus won the 2024 Grand National by seven and a half lengths. Not squeaked home, not benefited from a field falling apart in front of him. Won it decisively, in the manner of a horse who was simply better than everything else on the day. He was 7/1 joint favourite and Townend rode him with total confidence.
Last year, I Am Maximus came back and finished second again, beaten half a length by Nick Rockett. Two starts in the Grand National, two finishes in the first two.
His form this season has been managed carefully rather than vigorously, ridden by amateur Derek O’Connor on two occasions and by Jack Kennedy in the Irish Gold Cup, where he finished fifth. Townend has not sat on him at all this season.
Grangeclare West is a different proposition. Townend has ridden him in all five of his wins and the partnership record speaks for itself. In February, he produced one of the more impressive Bobbyjo Chase performances in recent years, coming from last to first on heavy ground to win by five and a half lengths.
It is worth noting that Mullins used the Bobbyjo as the key trial before I Am Maximus won the National two years ago. He does not do things by accident, and the fact that Grangeclare West followed the same path is not a coincidence.
The Ground Will Decide It
Townend has been refreshingly direct about what the deciding factor will be. “It’s probably a decision that I’ll leave as late as possible, as I’d say the ground will have a big bearing on it,” he said.
When Townend says ground will have a big bearing, he means it, even if the precise reasoning is harder to pin down from the outside. Both horses have form in a range of conditions, and neither has an obvious weakness that rules them out of a typical Aintree spring surface.
Sentiment Versus Logic
There is a reason Townend talks about taking sentiment out of the decision. I Am Maximus did not just win a horse race in 2024. He gave the most celebrated jockey in Irish jump racing his first Grand National, the one race that every jump jockey grows up wanting to win. The bond between a jockey and a horse that has done that for them is not nothing. But Townend is not a sentimental rider. Seven champion jockey titles, five Gold Cups, the greatest Cheltenham week in living memory three weeks ago. You do not build a career like that by choosing with your heart in a £500,000 race.
What Happens to the One He Does Not Ride
Whichever horse Townend leaves behind will still have a jockey. This is a Willie Mullins yard with no shortage of riders of the highest quality, and neither horse will go to Aintree short of a competent partner. But the decision affects the market, the narrative, and the perception of each horse’s chances going into race day.
If Townend chooses Grangeclare West, it will be read as a ground call, and as a signal that the younger, sharper horse is the one he trusts at this particular moment. If he stays with I Am Maximus, it will be taken as a statement of faith in a horse who has already proved he can win the race.
Either way, Townend will not be rushed. ‘We can’t get ahead of ourselves,’ he said. ‘We just have to try and get both horses to Aintree fit and firing, and if we can do that, then they both go there with big chances once again.’
The rest of us will be watching the weather forecast with almost as much interest as he is. The bookmakers will be watching him. When the world’s best jump jockey names his horse, the market tends to respond immediately, and whoever gets the Townend seal of approval on race week can expect its price to come in.
