The Grand National course is currently riding Good to Soft. What happens between now and 4pm on Saturday could matter a great deal to punters, trainers, and the horses who thrive or struggle depending on what is underfoot.
Here is a clear picture of what the forecasters are saying for Aintree between now and race time.
Thursday: Showers Clearing by Evening
The afternoon and evening of Thursday brings light rain showers, mainly between 4pm and 7pm, with a 43-68% chance of rain during that window. Wind is brisk from the west at around 18-20mph, with gusts up to 40mph. It clears overnight, with dry and partly cloudy conditions from around 9pm onwards.
In terms of ground impact, Thursday’s showers are unlikely to move the needle much. Light, scattered rainfall on ground that is already Good to Soft will add a small amount of moisture but nothing significant. The course will not be noticeably different on Friday morning as a result.
Friday: Dry All Day, Then Rain Arrives Late
Friday is the best day of the three. A dry, largely cloud-free morning and afternoon, temperatures rising to around 11-12 degrees, and calm winds through the middle of the day. It is a brief reprieve.
The picture changes from the evening onwards. Rain becomes likely from around 7pm (49% chance), and conditions deteriorate through the night. By 5am on Saturday, the BBC is showing an 80% chance of light rain. The Met Office regional forecast describes rain developing from the south on Friday evening and continuing overnight. So while Friday itself will be pleasant, the ground is likely receiving a steady soaking through the small hours of Saturday morning.
Saturday: Wet Start, Showers Through the Afternoon
Saturday is the day that matters most, and the forecast is not entirely straightforward. The BBC is showing a wet start, with a high probability of rain from 6am through to midday, peaking at 82% chance at 6am and remaining above 50% until around noon. The Met Office shows light rain from roughly 3am to 9am, then sunny intervals developing from mid-morning.
By early afternoon things improve. There is a window of sunshine around 2pm, and while showers continue through the afternoon and into the evening at a 30-40% chance, the heaviest and most sustained rainfall is likely to have passed well before the 4pm start. Temperatures will reach around 11-12 degrees by race time, with a south-westerly wind of 17-18mph.
What Does This Mean for the Going?
Aintree’s groundstaff will be monitoring conditions closely through Thursday night and Friday. The course is currently Good to Soft, which is the norm for Aintree in April.
Historically, the racecourse has managed its watering carefully and Good to Soft is the most common going description for the National in recent years. It has only been declared heavy three times in the last ten runnings, and even then usually only in places.
The question this weekend is whether the overnight Friday-into-Saturday rain pushes the ground into Soft territory. Based on the forecasts, that is a realistic possibility. Light rain over six or more hours, even if not especially intense, accumulates. If the ground shifts from Good to Soft to Soft, or Soft in places, it opens the door for horses with a preference for cut in the ground.
If the going is called Soft by Saturday morning, the complexion of the race changes. Horses such as Mr Vango and Haiti Couleurs tend to be better suited by a sounder surface giving way underfoot, while the forecast drying trend through the afternoon means ground that starts soft at 6am could be riding closer to Good to Soft by 4pm.
The Forecast in Plain Terms
- Thursday afternoon: light showers, clearing by 9pm. Minimal ground impact.
- Friday daytime: dry and pleasant. Ground unchanged.
- Friday night into Saturday morning: sustained light rain, 80% probability by 5am. This is the key weather event of the weekend.
- Saturday morning: wet and grey until around noon. Showers easing through the afternoon.
- Race time (4pm Saturday): showers possible but not heavy. Likely to be riding Good to Soft, with a chance of Soft in places depending on overnight accumulation.
The Grand National will not be run in a monsoon. But it will not be run on a sun-baked track either. For trainers who have been holding their breath about ground conditions, the forecast offers enough moisture to keep things comfortable and enough dry time through Saturday afternoon to avoid anything resembling the heavy going that can turn the race into a slog.
Watch for the official going report on Saturday morning. That will tell you more than any forecast can.
