Golden Tempo has beaten Renegade twice this season, and on paper that should make Saturday's Travers Stakes fairly straightforward to assess.
The Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner is 5/2 favourite, Renegade is next in the betting at 3/1, and the score between them currently stands at 2-0.
Even so, I think there is a very good case for siding with Renegade this time, though it's also really difficult to look past Golden Tempo.
The pair meet again at Saratoga on Saturday 29th August in what has become one of the more interesting rivalries among this year's three-year-olds.
Golden Tempo has unquestionably achieved more, but Renegade arrives with a fresher run under his belt, a recent win at Saratoga and a preparation that looks almost ideal for the Travers.
For that reason, this may be his best chance yet to finally get one over on the favourite.
Golden Tempo Took Round One in the Kentucky Derby
Their first major meeting came in the Kentucky Derby, where there was almost nothing between them at the finish.
Golden Tempo was produced late and got up to beat Renegade by just a neck, giving Cherie DeVaux one of the biggest wins of her career and immediately moving the colt to the head of the three-year-old division.
Renegade lost little in defeat. He had already won the Arkansas Derby and went to Churchill Downs as one of the more obvious contenders, then ran exactly like a horse who belonged at that level.
A neck is hardly a decisive margin, and that Derby result suggested there was very little between the pair when both were at their best.
Golden Tempo Was Stronger in the Belmont
The second meeting came in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga, where Golden Tempo produced the more convincing performance of the two.
With the Belmont once again staged over 1¼ miles at Saratoga, Golden Tempo was able to settle before coming through strongly in the closing stages to beat Commandment by 1¼ lengths.
Renegade finished third and never quite managed to land the same sort of challenge he had produced at Churchill Downs.
It proved the Kentucky Derby result was not simply about Golden Tempo getting the perfect setup on the day. He had now beaten Renegade under different conditions and, importantly for the Travers, he had also shown that Saratoga suited him.
If the two horses were arriving here from identical preparations, I would probably be siding with Golden Tempo again.
They are not.
Renegade Has Had the Better Travers Build-Up
This is where the argument starts to swing in Renegade's favour.
Golden Tempo was originally due to run in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga, which is one of the traditional prep races for the Travers. However, a minor illness interrupted his schedule, and Cherie DeVaux decided not to force the issue.
Golden Tempo has therefore not raced since the Belmont on June 6th, which means he will be returning from a break of almost three months and trying to produce another top-level performance without the benefit of a prep race.
There is nothing to suggest he is not fit, and his recent workouts have reportedly gone well, but racing fitness can be different from anything achieved at home.
Renegade, on the other hand, has already had exactly the sort of run you would want before a race like this.
He returned at Saratoga in the Jim Dandy on August 1st, settled towards the rear and then came with a strong late run to catch Commandment, winning by half a length.
It was a proper prep rather than a hard race that might have left him flat, and it gave him another chance to race over the Saratoga surface before the Travers.
Renegade Looks to Be Coming Into the Race at the Right Time
What I liked most about the Jim Dandy was that Renegade did not look like a horse who had to produce everything he had in order to win.
He spent most of the race around 10 lengths off the leading trio but didn't seem fazed, kicking into gear in the closing stages, running down his opponents.
Todd Pletcher has since spoken positively about the colt's condition, and his final workout before the Travers also went smoothly.
Renegade covered four furlongs in 48.87 seconds on August 22nd, after which Pletcher sounded very happy with his condition.
That does not guarantee anything, of course, but when you are trying to separate two horses priced at 5/2 and 3/1, preparation is key.
The Draw Gives Renegade Options
Renegade has also landed post five, while Golden Tempo will start from post nine.
Neither horse relies on getting to the front early, so I would not make too much of the draw, but Renegade's position does give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options.
He can settle behind the pace, save ground around the first turn and then decide how early he wants to start moving into the race.
Golden Tempo is unlikely to be badly inconvenienced from nine, but Jose Ortiz may have to make a few more decisions in the opening stages, especially if the runners inside him begin pushing forward.
In a race where there is probably not much between the two best horses, even these small advantages can count.
Why I Slightly Prefer Renegade
At 5/2 and 3/1, there is not enough difference in the prices to make this purely a value argument.
For me, it comes down to timing. We already know Renegade can get extremely close to Golden Tempo because only a neck separated them in the Kentucky Derby.
Since then, he has gained more experience at Saratoga and arrives on the back of winning the Jim Dandy.
Golden Tempo has had a less straightforward build-up and is being asked to return at Grade 1 level after missing his intended prep.
That may not bother him at all, but it gives Renegade a small edge that he did not have earlier in the season.
So while Golden Tempo fully deserves to start favourite, I would side narrowly with Renegade at 3/1.
Golden Tempo has won their first two meetings, but Saturday could finally be the day Renegade gets one back.
BETFRED
