The 2026 St Leger market has become very focused on three horses. Christmas Day has the Derby on his record, Enceladus has been backed heavily after three straight wins this season, and Pierre Bonnard has strong form against the favourite.
But this is not a three-horse race, and there’s a big gap in the betting that could be hiding a couple of outsiders worth a second look!
For anyone looking beyond the obvious names, two runners stand out more than the others. First up we have Highwayman for Joseph O’Brien and secondly, Hatteen for Andrew Balding.
Neither has achieved anything close to Christmas Day’s Derby win, and both need to improve, but they arrive at Doncaster with reasons to think they can do better than their double-figure prices suggest.
Highwayman Has Already Passed a Major Stamina Test
Highwayman’s form figures may not exactly be the most obvious for a Classic contender, with his first four runs producing finishing positions of ninth, tenth, tenth and eighth.
If you had suggested after that fourth defeat that he would be lining up in the St Leger a few months later, the idea would have sounded incredibly optimistic.
Then Joseph O’Brien started asking him to race over much longer distances and at Killarney in July, Highwayman stepped up to around 1m3½f for a maiden and won by nine lengths. It was a huge change from what he had shown over shorter trips.
That could have been dismissed as a weak maiden coming together for him, but his next start gave the form much more weight. He went to Leopardstown for the Listed Vinnie Roe Stakes over 1m6f and won again, this time beating Cannes by two and a quarter lengths at 22/1.
Most of Saturday’s field are being asked to prove they can stay beyond a mile and a half, and Highwayman has already done it.
There is an obvious reason why Highwayman is so far down the pecking order in the odds markets. His official rating is 1well behind Christmas Day, Pierre Bonnard, and Enceladus. Even if ratings do not always tell the full story with a fast-improving three-year-old, a 17lb gap to the top-rated horse cannot simply be ignored.
Highwayman also moves from a Listed race into a Group 1, and while the opposition at Leopardstown was useful, this is a very different standard.
The question is whether his rating has caught up with the horse he has become since racing over longer distances.
Saffie Osborne has been booked to ride, adding another talking point because no female jockey has won a British Classic. Could Saturday be history-making?
Hatteen Has Something Most of the Field Does Not
Hatteen’s case begins with Doncaster itself when, in July, Andrew Balding sent him to the track for the inaugural St Leger Trial Novice Stakes over a mile and a half.
Hatteen won comfortably by four and a quarter lengths, travelling into the race before going clear inside the final furlong. It may not have been Group 1 form, but course form is never a bad thing to have.
He then went to Goodwood for a competitive 1m4f handicap and was beaten only a head by Infraad, so while the bare result says second, he had to wait for room before making his run and was involved in a close finish after being carried slightly off line.
Now he goes another two and a half furlongs at Doncaster, and that could be part of the problem. He has the lowest mark in the entire St Leger field, with Christmas Day rated 22lb higher, Enceladus 16lb higher, and Pierre Bonnard 20lb higher.
Hatteen has also never run in Listed or Group company, so going from a handicap straight into a St Leger is a much bigger move than Highwayman is making after his Listed success.
However, Hatteen has had only five starts and is not a fully exposed horse who has been stuck around a mark in the 90s for two seasons. His recent run at Goodwood came from a rating of 88, and his current mark has risen to 96 without him winning.
Faleh Bughenaim is booked to ride, and Hatteen’s previous Doncaster success means the track itself holds no fears.
The likely good-to-soft ground is less certain because his best form has come on quicker going, so supporters would probably prefer conditions not to become much slower before Saturday.
Which One Is the Better Dark-Horse Bet?
Highwayman has the stronger form for this exact race. He has won over 1m6f, has already succeeded in Listed company and has won his last two starts by a combined margin of more than 11 lengths.
His rating says he must improve, but there is a clear reason to believe there may be more to come over staying distances.
Hatteen is more speculative. His Doncaster win is useful, his Goodwood second was better than a simple reading of the result may suggest, and he is still lightly raced. But the leap from handicap company to a Group 1 is very large.
If the question is which horse could give Christmas Day and Enceladus the biggest problem, Highwayman would be the first choice of the two.
If the question is which horse could run into a place at a bigger price, Hatteen has enough positives to enter the discussion.
One More Outsider Worth Remembering
Amelia Earhart is also worth a brief mention at around 25/1. She is the only filly in the field and receives 3lb from the colts, carrying 9st compared with their 9st 3lb.
Her official rating leaves her behind the favourites, but it puts her above Hatteen, Highwayman, Golden Story and Rebel Rocker.
Unfortunately, her season has not developed as many expected when she was among the early Oaks favourites, but she comes into Doncaster after finishing second on her latest start.
At 25/1 she is not the main dark-horse selection in this year’s St Leger, but she gives Aidan O’Brien another runner who could matter if the longer trip suits.
None of the three needs to be called a likely winner to be interesting at the prices. Highwayman looks the more convincing threat to the leading three, while Hatteen has the sort of lightly raced profile that makes a place finish possible if he improves again.
For anyone who thinks the 2/1 favourites are short enough in an 11-runner Classic, those are the three names lower down the list that deserve a second look.
BETFRED
