The Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown is supposed to be Ireland v Ireland v whoever else dares turn up; in 2026 it still looks very much like Willie Mullins v Gordon Elliott with everyone else playing supporting roles.
After day one was washed away and pushed back to Monday, the spotlight on that rivalry has only sharpened, with everyone wondering how the changes will affect the two‑day showdown.
Mullins has the favourites in six of the eight Grade 1s, but Elliott has quietly parked a small army of second favourites and close challengers right behind them.
The opening‑day postponement hasn’t changed that basic shape; if anything, it has cranked up the tension, with trainers having to keep horses on the boil for an extra 48 hours.
Add in a week of wild Irish weather, a waterlogged track earlier in the week, and ground now described as soft to heavy on the hurdles course and yielding to soft (edging back towards soft/heavy) on the chase track, and suddenly the script feels a lot less straightforward.
Ground, Weather and Nearly Called Off
Leopardstown was partially waterlogged after an astonishing 193mm of rain in the previous fortnight, including 22mm in the last 24 hours, leaving sections of the hurdles track unfit for racing.
The morning inspection was failed on Saturday, meaning the opening‑day card was abandoned and the whole programme – including the big Grade 1s – was pushed back 48 hours to run on Monday, February 2nd instead.
With day one postponed, attention switched to whether the track could recover in time for today, and a fresh inspection on Sunday morning gave the all‑clear for the day‑two card to go ahead as scheduled.
The going remains officially soft to heavy on the hurdles course and soft to heavy on the chase track – a long way from “nice spring ground” and much closer to “bring a snorkel and a strong stayer”.
Soft or heavy conditions like that can compress the gap between a flashy favourite and a tougher rival who just keeps galloping, particularly in novice races and staying contests where stamina and attitude come to the fore.
Elliott’s team is often fit, busy and already battle‑tested from mid‑winter racing, and plenty of pre‑festival chatter suggested that genuinely testing ground could tilt a couple of the tighter Mullins‑v‑Elliott match‑ups back towards Cullentra’s hard‑knocking types.
Juveniles and Novice Hurdlers – Elliott’s Early Strikes
In the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, Willie Mullins’ Narciso Has is a hot favourite after bolting up by 11 lengths at Leopardstown over Christmas.
But Gordon Elliott’s Mange Tout actually beat him earlier in the season at Fairyhouse and comes in unbeaten, with connections openly suggesting she will improve again and that testing ground will be no issue.
The Racing Post piece even flags Narciso Has as one of the more “take‑on‑able” Mullins favourites precisely because Mange Tout is lurking so close in the market.
If this turns into a slog up the straight, an Elliott juvenile who has already out‑stayed the favourite once becomes a very live danger.
In the longer Nathaniel Lacy novice hurdle, Mullins has Doctor Steinberg, a justifiably short price after an impressive Grade 2 win at Navan.
But Elliott runs Kazansky, who won a stamina‑sapping Grade 2 over almost three miles at Limerick on Boxing Day and has been put up by some tipsters as value against the favourite at around 3/1.
That Limerick race was on very testing ground; the argument goes that similar conditions at Leopardstown could again bring his stamina and toughness into play, especially if Doctor Steinberg faces the deepest ground he has encountered so far.
Irish Arkle and Novice Chases – Small Fields, Big Threats
The Goffs Irish Arkle has only three runners, with Elliott’s Romeo Coolio heading the market after two Grade 1 wins.
One of the main reasons it cut up, though, is that Mullins’ mare Kargese is running – and Elliott has been very clear that he considers her a “real threat” to Romeo Coolio, especially on testing ground.
That tells you two things: first, Elliott is not scared of taking Mullins on when he thinks he has the right weapon; second, there are other divisions this weekend (Sandown) where that Mullins v Elliott clash is fully live rather than hypothetical.
In the Ladbrokes Novice Chase, Mullins again holds the favourite with Final Demand, but Elliott’s novice chasers have been running out of their skins all season and he brings a couple who are shortening in Cheltenham markets off the back of strong winter form.
Timeform and other analysts have highlighted a handful of Elliott novices whose odds could contract sharply after the weekend, which is another way of saying they rate them as very realistic threats to Mullins’ headline horses if the cards fall right.
Staying Chasers and Hurdlers – Elliott’s Grinders In The Mud
In the Irish Gold Cup, which Mullins dominates with a staggering eight runners from 13, the superstar, Galopin Des Champs, leads in the betting.
There isn’t much of a close call in this race, but Elliott has two runners trying to make life difficult: Firefox and Stellar Story.
Firefox has strong graded form at intermediate trips and is expected to appreciate testing conditions.
Stellar Story, meanwhile, brings proven staying form and a grinding style that often plays well when others start floundering.
On Sunday in the Irish Champion Hurdle, Lossiemouth is a short‑priced Mullins favourite, but almost every preview now notes that the “main danger” is Gordon Elliott’s Brighterdaysahead, who chased her home at Leopardstown at Christmas and is second favourite again.
Brighterdaysahead is already a Grade 1 winner, handles cut in the ground, and went down by only around a length to Lossiemouth last time out, despite being thought to need the run.
Softer ground, sharper fitness, and a truly run race could easily narrow that gap further, and more than one tipster has suggested this is one of the more realistic spots where Mullins might be turned over by an Elliott mare.
In the handicaps and supporting races, Elliott’s team is even deeper: he has several well‑fancied runners in the staying handicap hurdles and chases, many of them with proven form on soft or heavy ground.
Those races don’t involve Mullins’ hotpots in the same direct way, but if Elliott is racking up wins across the card, confidence and momentum can easily spill into the Grade 1s as well.
Dublin Chase and Champion Chase Types – Margins Get Thinner
Majborough leads the market for Mullins, but Marine Nationale sits right beside him, and Solness is not far behind, turning the race into a genuine three‑way puzzle.
Elliott’s main two‑mile standard‑bearer, Found A Fifty, is a little bigger in the betting but comes here off strong graded runs and shape as a horse who would relish a proper test in softish ground.
The problem is that he was well beaten last time out by all three at the top of the market when Solness, Marine Nationale, and Majborough all finished ahead of him at Leopardstown in December.
A Festival Framed As A Duel
Strip everything back and you’re left with a festival that, on paper, looks like Mullins’ to dominate – but in practice might be defined by how often Elliott can drag the favourite into deep water, literally and figuratively.
The ground is in Elliott’s favour, many of his best chances sit second in the betting rather than buried in the field, and several of Mullins’ shortest‑priced hopes have very specific Elliott‑trained horses snapping at their heels:
- Mange Tout against Narciso Has in the juvenile
- Kazansky against Doctor Steinberg in the novice hurdle
- Brighterdaysahead against Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle
A staying team including Firefox and Stellar Story lining up behind Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup.
Mullins has the favourites and the firepower; Elliott arrives with horses that love a scrap, love deep ground, and are close enough in the market that “small margins” could easily flip a result or two.
For punters and fans, that’s exactly what you want: a weekend that might yet confirm Mullins’ dominance, but has more than enough Elliott‑shaped danger lurking to keep every Grade 1 genuinely interesting from flagfall to finish line.
BETFRED
