2025 GRAND NATIONAL TIPS

Stat-Savvy Betting: Unearth Grand National Trends and Tips

WHO WILL WIN?

Who will win the 2025 Grand National? It’s the question we’re all asking, and without the aid of a crystal ball, we’re forced to study the form, statistics and trends.

By analyzing these factors, we can narrow down the likely contenders. This doesn't mean picking the winner is simple; indeed, the race continues to be among the most unpredictable in the sporting calendar.

However, by applying stats and trend analysis, we chose the horses listed below that we believed could run a big race in 2024. And three of them did, including the 1st and 2nd place finishers!!

Aintree Countdown

GRAND NATIONAL 2025

5th April 4pm 

The 2025 Grand National will be held at Aintree Racecourse on Saturday, April 5th at 4pm. The Randox Health sponsored race is run over 4 miles 514 yards with 30 jumps over two circuits of the course.

0 days 00 hr 00 min 00 sc
Silks JP McManus - Grand National

I AM MAXIMUS

4.6/5
7/1

JOCKEY: - PAUL TOWNEND

NO: 5 | FORM: 1-1431 | WEIGHT: 11-06 | AGE: 8 | TRAINER: W P MULLINS

I Am Maximus has a knack for finishing in the money. After a triumphant run in the Irish Grand National in 2023, he's set to conquer Aintree's big fence. Channeling the spirit of his cinematic namesake from the Gladiator movie, he seems poised to ask, 'Are you not entertained?'

Kitty's Light Silk

KITTY'S LIGHT

4.5/5
14/1

JOCKEY: - JACK TUDOR

NO: 34 | FORM: -47057 | WEIGHT: 10-07 | AGE: 8 | TRAINER: C. WILLIAMS

Finished last season on a high, winning the Eider Chase, the Scottish Grand National, and the Gold Cup at Sandown. If there's one horse that loves the long distanced races, it's Kitty's Light.

Nassalam Silk

NASSALAM

4.4/5
40/1

JOCKEY: - CAOILIN QUINN

NO: 2 | FORM: 7-411P | WEIGHT: 11-08 | AGE: 7 | TRAINER: G MOORE

Nassalam's season is on fire, kicking off with a win in the Welsh Grand National Trial, then clinching the Welsh National at Chepstow shortly after. The Gold Cup wasn't his best showing, but with experience over the big Aintree fences, he could be one to watch.

Giggins Town Grand National Runner

DELTA WORK

4/5
25/1

JOCKEY: -

NO: 11 | FORM: 1U-366 | WEIGHT: 11-04 | AGE: 11 | TRAINER: G. ELLIOTT

Delta Work's journey in the 2023 Grand National was abruptly halted at the 21st fence, but with a prior 3rd place finish at Aintree, he's not to be underestimated. Will this be his year to shine?

Latenightpass Silks

LATENIGHTPASS

4.1/5
25/1

JOCKEY: - GINA ANDREWS

NO: 20 | FORM: 14-215 | WEIGHT: 10-10 | AGE: 11 | TRAINER: T. ELLIS

Finished 4th in the Foxhunters Chase at Aintree and came back strong in November to compete in the Cross Country at Cheltenham. A month later, won the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup. Could be the surprise package on the day.

Ante post odds listed on this page are taken from Betfred on 19/04/2024. No horse is guaranteed a position in the race until the final declaration stage (03/04/2025). Check the odds with your Bookmaker before placing a bet, as fluctuations occur. Full Terms and Conditions for the promotional bet offers can be found on the respective websites – read them before you sign up.

Betfred

BETFRED OFFER

Join with promo code SUMMER50

£50 IN FREE BETS - when you bet £10

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MORE GRAND NATIONAL TIPS

Grand National 2025 Tips from Newspapers, Tipsters and Racing Journalists.

PUNDIT

MATT CHAPMAN

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Telegraph

SPORT’S TIPS

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Jockey & Racing Journalist

MARCUS ARMYTAGE

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Skybet Racing Ambassador

ALEX HAMMOND

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Betfred

BETFRED OFFER

Join with promo code SUMMER50

£50 IN FREE BETS - when you bet £10

New customers only. Register with SUMMER50 between 31/05/24 – 14/07/24. First bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply. begambleaware.org. #ad. Please bet responsibly.

FINDING A WINNER

Here you can read a little more about how we narrow down the field of runners to find a potential winner. That's not to say that finding the winner is easy, and the race still remains one of the most open contests in sport.

But with the application of statistics and trends, we can discount runners who don't fit into the historical winners profile. Usually, this leaves us with a shortlist of 10 or fewer horses with the ‘right stuff' to win at Aintree.

AGE

The first trend to focus on is the Runner's age. The Aintree Grand National fences require a level of maturity from the horses that usually comes with age and experience.

So first off, eliminate all of those horses that are younger than eight or older than ten. Eight out of the last ten winners have come from this age group. Only Noble Yeats (7) and Pineau De Re (11) have bucked this trend.

WEIGHT

The handicap system is designed to give every horse a fair crack at winning the race. Good horses will carry more weight than those perceived to have less ability.

Historically horses carrying over 11 stone 3 pounds have struggled to overcome this handicap. Only five horses in the last 20 years have managed it, and they were I Am Maximus in 2024, Tiger Roll in 2019, Many Clouds in 2015, Neptune Collonges in 2012, and Don't Push It in 2010.

In fact, 7 of the last 10 winners have weighed 10-13 or less, so before you place a bet, keep that in mind when trying to reduce your selections.

AINTREE FACTOR

It really does help if the horse you have backed has previously run and done well at Aintree, preferably over the Grand National Fences.

So whether they’ve run the race in the past or taken part in the Becher Chase or the Topham Chase, if they’ve successfully navigated the course and finished the race, then it proves they have the jumping ability to make it around again.

FORM

When it comes to form, you need to look closely at how a horse has been performing for the last couple of seasons. Those who consistently get pulled up, fall, unseat their riders or refuse need to be removed from the equation.

The 2014 winner, Pineau De Re had only fallen once in the two years before his big win and had never pulled up, refused or unseated his jockey at any point in his entire career. 

Battlegroup, on the other hand, had Refused and Pulled-Up twice in his three races immediately before the National. So it wasn't surprising news when he refused to race in the 2014 Grand National. He planted his feet at the starting line and wouldn't budge! A huge disappointment for all those who backed him.

FANCY THE FAVOURITE?

Note that only 6 favourites have won in the last 25 years.

RECENT RUNNERS

Prioritise horses that have run within the last 55 days, as 94% of the last 31 winners fit this trend.

AVOID THE YOUNG GUNS

Avoid 7-year-olds, with the rare exception like Noble Yeats in 2022, they have a poor record in the race. Consider 8-year-olds, they have claimed 5 wins in the last 10 years.

CHELTENHAM FORM

Look for horses that have run at Cheltenham before heading to Aintree, they account for 12 of the last 31 winners. The last two winners ran in the Trophy Handicap Chase.

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