8 to 10 is the optimal age for a Grand National winner.
Noble Yeats tore up the rule book when winning the Grand National in 2022. A seven-year-old novice with an amateur, albeit incredible, jockey on board. But we were thrilled to see Sam Waley-Cohen retire in style!
Much closer to the Grand National 2023, we will pick the runners we think can run a great race on April 15th 2023. We’ll also add in a few Grand National tips from the top pundits and tipsters around the UK and Ireland.
Noble Yeats ripped up the form book when he became the first seven-year-old to win the Grand National since Bogskar in 1940.
Ridden by amateur jockey Sam Waley-Cohen, he was a rank outsider going into the race, with odds of 50/1. But he proved his doubters wrong with a gutsy performance. It was an emotional moment for Waley-Cohen, who was riding his last race before retiring.
NO: | FORM: 9P291 | AGE: 7 | WEIGHT: UNKNOWN | JOCKEY: UNKNOWN | TRAINER: E. Mullins
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Unlikely to mount a serious challenge.
Could place with a slice of luck.
A strong eachway chance and could even win it.
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WHO WILL WIN?
Who will win the 2023 Grand National? It’s the question we’re all asking, and without the aid of a crystal ball we’re all forced to study the form, statistics and trends to help us find the winner.
Grand National winners, and those horses who place, generally fall into certain trends. I look at those trends and rule out those who don’t quite fit the criteria although I always tip one or two outsiders who have the potential to defy the odds.
On this page we will feature the horses who we think can run a big race. For now though it’s too early to speculate so come back closer to the time!
Finding A Winner
Here you can read a little more about how we narrow down the field of runners to find a potential winner. That’s not to say that finding the winner is easy, the race still remains one of the most open contests in sport. But with the application of statistics and trends we can discount runners who don’t fit into the historical winners profile. Usually this leaves use with a shortlist of 10 or fewer horses who have the ‘right stuff’ to win at Aintree.
The first criteria is the Runner’s age. The Aintree Grand National fences require a level of maturity from the horses that usually comes with age and experience. So first off, eliminate all of those horses that are younger than eight or older than 11 years of age. In the last 20 years, 19 of the winners have come from that age group. Only Amberleigh House house bucked the trend in 2004 when winning at the ripe old age of 12.
The handicap system is designed to give every horse a fair crack at winning the race. Good horses will carry more weight than those perceived to have less ability. Historically horses carrying over 11 stone 3 pounds have struggled to overcome this handicap. Only four horses in the last 20 years have managed it and they were Tiger Roll in 2019, Many Clouds in 2015, Neptune Collonges in 2012 and Don’t Push It in 2010.
In fact, 6 of the last 10 winners have weighed less than 11-01 so before you place a bet, bare that in mind when you’re trying to reduce your selections.
It really does help if the horse you have backed has previously run and done well at Aintree, preferably over the Grand National Fences. So whether they’ve run the race in the past or taken part in the Becher Chase or the Topham Chase, if they’ve successfully navigated the course and finished the race then it proves they have the jumping ability to make it around again.
When it comes to form, you need to look closely at how a horse has been performing for the last couple of seasons. Those who consistently get pulled up, fall, unseat their riders or refuse need to be taken out of the equation. The 2014 winner, Pineau De Re had only fallen once in the two years prior to his big win and had never pulled up, refused or unseated his jockey at any point in his entire career.
Battlegroup, on the other hand, had Refused and Pulled-Up twice in his three races immediately prior to the National. So it wasn’t surprising news when he refused to race in the 2014 Grand National. He planted his feet at the starting line and wouldn’t budge! A huge disappointment for all those who backed him.