Here you can read a little more about how we narrow down the field of runners to find a potential winner. That’s not to say that finding the winner is easy, and the race still remains one of the most open contests in sport. But with the application of statistics and trends, we can discount runners who don’t fit into the historical winners profile. Usually, this leaves us with a shortlist of 10 or fewer horses with the ‘right stuff’ to win at Aintree.

AGE

The first trend to focus on is the Runner’s age. The Aintree Grand National fences require a level of maturity from the horses that usually comes with age and experience. So first off, eliminate all of those horses that are younger than eight or older than ten. Seven out of the last ten winners have come from this age group. Only Noble Yeats (7), Auroras Encore (11) and Pineau De Re have bucked this trend.

WEIGHT

The handicap system is designed to give every horse a fair crack at winning the race. Good horses will carry more weight than those perceived to have less ability. Historically horses carrying over 11 stone 3 pounds have struggled to overcome this handicap. Only four horses in the last 20 years have managed it, and they were Tiger Roll in 2019, Many Clouds in 2015, Neptune Collonges in 2012, and Don’t Push It in 2010.

In fact, 8 of the last 10 winners have weighed 10-13 or less, so before you place a bet, keep that in mind when trying to reduce your selections.

AINTREE FACTOR

It really does help if the horse you have backed has previously run and done well at Aintree, preferably over the Grand National Fences. So whether they’ve run the race in the past or taken part in the Becher Chase or the Topham Chase, if they’ve successfully navigated the course and finished the race, then it proves they have the jumping ability to make it around again.

FORM

When it comes to form, you need to look closely at how a horse has been performing for the last couple of seasons. Those who consistently get pulled up, fall, unseat their riders or refuse need to be removed from the equation. The 2014 winner, Pineau De Re had only fallen once in the two years before his big win and had never pulled up, refused or unseated his jockey at any point in his entire career. 

Battlegroup, on the other hand, had Refused and Pulled-Up twice in his three races immediately before the National. So it wasn’t surprising news when he refused to race in the 2014 Grand National. He planted his feet at the starting line and wouldn’t budge! A huge disappointment for all those who backed him.