Age
8 to 10 is the optimal age for a Grand National winner.
Who Will Win?
Who will win the 2018 Randox Health Grand National? It's the question we're all asking, and without the aid of a crystal ball or a time machine we're all forced to study the form, statistics and trends to help us find the winner.
Grand National winners, and those who place, generally fall into certain trends. I look at those trends and rule out those who don’t quite fit the criteria although I always tip one or two crazy outsiders who have the potential to defy the odds.
Last year we predicted a big run from Cause Of Causes, the Gordon Elliott trained horse finished second to One For Arthur in a thrilling race. This year we hope to go one better! Below you can see our tips for the big race.
VICENTE
Paul Nicholls has trained a Grand National winner before in Neptune Collognes, so he know what it takes. Vicente looks the type that would benefit from schooling over the unique fences or getting a run at Aintree over the National course in the Becher Chase this coming autumn.
NO.00 | JOCKEY: UNKNOWN | FORM: F669F1 | WEIGHT: 00-00 | AGE: 8 | TRAINER: P NICHOLLS
DEFINITLY RED
Was sent off by punters as a 10/1 shot in the 2017 Grand National but Definitly Red failed to reproduce the form which saw him sparkly in the Grimthorpe Chase earlier in the season. Connections will be hoping for a better show in 2018.
NO.00 | JOCKEY: UNKNOWN | FORM: 131U1P | WEIGHT: 00-00 | AGE: 8 | TRAINER: B ELLISON
BLAKLION
If connections pitch Blaklion at the Grand National again, a more conservative ride could easily see him improve on his fourth place finish in 2017. Whether the handicapper will be kinder to this horse, however, remains to be seen.
NO.00 | JOCKEY: UNKNOWN | FORM: 3-4532 | WEIGHT: 00-00 | AGE: 8 | TRAINER: N TWISTON-DAVIES
Ratings Explained
We give each horse a rating based on how closely it matches the past trends and statistics of previous winners
Unlikely to mount a serious challenge.
Could place with a slice of luck.
A strong eachway chance and could even win it.
Check the odds with your Bookmaker before placing a bet as fluctuations can occur. Full Terms and Conditions for the promotional bet offers can be found on the Betfair and Paddy Power websites – please read them before signing up.
More Tips Coming Soon
Keep checking for more tips
More Tips Coming Soon
Keep checking for more tips
Finding A Winner
Here you can read a little more about how we narrow down the field of runners to find a potential winner. That's not to say that finding the winner is easy, the race still remains one of the most open contests in sport. But with the application of statistics and trends we can discount runners who don't fit into the historical winners profile. Usually this leaves use with a shortlist of 10 or fewer horses who have the ‘right stuff' to win at Aintree.
Age
The first criteria is the Runners age. The Aintree Grand National fences require a level of maturity from the horses that usually comes with age and experience. So first off, eliminate all of those horses that are younger than nine or older than 11 years of age. In the last 20 years 17 of the winners have come from that age group. *I have broken my own rule this year by tipping both Vicente and Vieux Lion Rouge who are both 8 years old, lets hope I don't regret it!
Weight
The handicap system is designed to give every horse a fair crack at winning the race. Good horses will carry more weight than those perceived to have less ability. Historically horses carrying over 11 stone 3 pounds have struggled to overcome this handicap. Only three horses in the last 20 years have managed it and they were Many Clouds in 2015, Neptune Collonges in 2012 and Don't Push It in 2010.
In fact, 7 of the last 10 winners have weighed less than 11-01 so bare that in mind when you’re trying to reduce your selections.
Aintree Factor
It really does help if the horse you have backed has previously run and done well at Aintree, preferably over the Grand National Fences. So whether they’ve run the race in the past or taken part in the Becher Chase or the Topham Chase, if they’ve successfully navigated the course and finished the race then it proves they have the jumping ability to make it around again.
Form
When it comes to form, you need to look closely at how a horse has been performing for the last couple of seasons. Those who consistently get pulled up, fall, unseat their riders or refuse need to be taken out of the equation. The 2014 winner, Pineau De Re had only fallen once in the two years prior to his big win and had never pulled up, refused or unseated his jockey at any point in his entire career.
Battlegroup, on the other hand, had Refused and Pulled-Up twice in his three races immediately prior to the National. So it was no surprise when he refused to race in the 2014 Grand National. He planted his feet at the starting line and wouldn't budge! A huge disappointed for all his backers and with just a little research you can avoid backing weaker prospects like him.
